Cigar Mile fair odds: Favorite and longest shot could team up

In comparing my fair odds with the morning line for the Grade 2 Cigar Mile on Saturday at Aqueduct, it is very clear who the playable and opposable horses are.

Top selection: Phileas Fogg was-odds on against Locked in the Woodward Stakes (G2), and it's possible this Astern gelding is better suited to a mile even though he has a couple nice wins at 1 1/4 miles. Picking up Joel Rosario for the cutback here with a bullet work in tow makes him the horse to beat.

Click here for Aqueduct entries and results.

Against: Both Bishops Bay and Crazy Mason figure to take money based on being the second and third choices, respectively, on David Aragona's morning line. Bishops Bay certainly figures with two wins at the track and distance, but at 2-1 morning line versus Phileas Fogg's 9-5, I'd much rather have Phileas Fogg and don't want to use the top two choices.

Crazy Mason is a total toss for me. I see him as the least likely winner of this race, so the fact that he is the third choice on the morning line means there is no reason to use him in any bet what so ever. This one-turn mile against this group is going to test his limits, and Irad Ortiz Jr. picking up the mount only serves to reduce takeout on others.

Top long shot: Brazenly is the longest price on the morning line, and although I have him among the least likely winners, this group is competitive enough that no one should be 30-1. Throw in that this hard-knocking Grazen gelding gets as much as 11 pounds from his rivals and is 11-for-17 in the money at this distance, albeit at two turns in some instances, and he is absolutely playable here.

Liking a big price like that also allows us to fold in Bishops Bay a bit. And if Crazy Mason runs well, I'll just have to be wrong.