Belmont 2026: Early odds, analysis for a 9-horse field

The $2 million Belmont Stakes will be run at Saratoga next Saturday at the modified distance of 1 1/4 miles for the third time while construction of the new Belmont Park is completed.

After the defections of Chip Honcho and Potente, confirmed Wednesday morning, the Belmont field has an anticipated field of nine for the third leg of Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown. Six horses from the Kentucky Derby on May 2 are expected, including the top four finishers along with the only horse to run in all three legs.

Here is an early look at the probable field for the Belmont Stakes listed in the order of the morning line from Brian Zipse of Horse Racing Nation. The post-position draw will be held in Saratoga on Monday at 5 p.m. EDT.

Renegade, 2-1. Into Mischief – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 6: 2-3-1 - $2,031,500. Renegade headed to the Kentucky Derby with wins in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and the Sam F. Davis. In the run for the roses, he was the second choice and had one of those Derby troubled trips, which put him as far back as 16th position and almost 10 lengths behind. Down the stretch he battled for the lead and was beaten by just a neck. Pletcher has won the Belmont four times, starting in 2007 with the filly Rags to Riches to 2022 with Mo Donegal. Win contender.

Chief Wallabee, 4-1. Constitution – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 4: 1-1-1 - $466,600. Chief Wallabee still has only one victory but added a pair of top-three finishes on the Derby trail at Gulfstream Park. On the first Saturday in May, he was 10th for much of the early going and finished with good energy to be fourth three lengths behind the winner. Mott won the Belmont last year with Sovereignty and in 2010 with Drosselmeyer. Use underneath.

Golden Tempo, 9-2. Curlin – Cherie DeVaux / Jose Ortiz – 5: 3-0-2 - $3,433,000. Golden Tempo got pinched back at the start of the Kentucky Derby to be last in the field of 18, some 14 lengths behind the leader. He had to go extremely wide around the final turn to begin his closing move. Golden Tempo had to make up more than five lengths at the stretch call and got by Renegade to win on the first Saturday in May. Win contender.

Commandment, 6-1. Into Mischief – Brad Cox / John Velazquez – 6: 4-0-0 - $1,017,339. Commandment won four races in a row heading to the Kentucky Derby, going from a maiden as a 2-year-old at Churchill to the Florida Derby (G1). In the first leg of the Triple Crown, Commandment broke slowly as the fourth betting choice, had to race wide the entire way, got jostled around in the stretch and improved his position from 14th to end up seventh, about five lengths behind the winner. Essential Quality gave Cox his only Belmont victory in 2021. Cannot be ignored.

Emerging Market, 8-1. Candy Ride – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 3: 2-0-0 - $618,880. Emerging Market began his career in February with a maiden victory at Tampa and then stepped right up to the Kentucky Derby trail, where he won a stretch battle in the Louisiana Derby (G2) against Golden Tempo. With only two starts, Emerging Market was sent off at 8-1 on the first Saturday in May, where he was within three lengths of the front for the first mile of the race. Down the stretch he faded to finish 10th. Live long shot.

Growth Equity, 12-1. Nyquist – Chad Brown / Manny Franco – 4: 2-2-0 - $187,600. Growth Equity debuted as a 2-year-old at Saratoga as the 7-2 second choice and finished second. He came back in February and was second again running behind a well-regarded favorite at Gulfstream. In March, Growth Equity broke his maiden at Aqueduct and then won the Peter Pan (G3), which was the local prep race for the Belmont Stakes. Live long shot.

Ocelli, 15-1. Connect – Whit Beckman / Tyler Gaffalione – 8: M-1-4 - $729,800. Ocelli is the only horse who will have run in all three legs of the Triple Crown and yet he is still a maiden who is fourth in the prospective Belmont field in earnings. Ocelli had the lead at the sixteenth pole in the Kentucky Derby at 70-1 and finished third, a length behind the winner. In the Preakness, his odds dropped to 7-1 and again he rallied from the back of the field to finish in fourth place at Laurel Park. Likely to remain a maiden.

Powershift, 15-1. Constitution – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 3: 1-1-1 - $81,896. Powershift will head to the Belmont Stakes with only a maiden victory at the beginning of May in his third start. He debuted at Tampa Bay in February as a heavy 1-1 favorite and he finished second behind Emerging Market. Owner Mike Repole wanted to take a shot in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), where Powershift was sixth and again got a lot of attention from bettors to be 7-2. Back in the maiden ranks, he was a winner at Churchill by almost three lengths. Toss.

Ottinho, 20-1. Quality Road – Chad Brown / Dylan Davis – 4: 1-1-2 - $324,700. Ottinho won a nine-furlong maiden at Aqueduct in his second start in December. He moved onto the Derby trail to run third in the Withers and a distant second in the Blue Grass (G1). His last three workouts were in New York. Toss.

Summary: Since 2000, the Belmont Stakes has been dominated by horses who ran behind the early leader while pressing and stalking the pace but never getting too far behind before launching a closing move. Only three horses won with a front-end effort, Triple Crown winners Justify and American Pharaoh and the long shot Da’ Tara. In the other extreme, Jazil was the only deep closer to win the Belmont this century as he rallied from almost 12 lengths behind in the early stages of the race.

The final Belmont Stakes odds and analysis will be posted on June 2 after the post-position draw in Saratoga on June 1. Check back then for a closer look at how the running style of the horses in the field impacts the top pick choice.