Louisiana Derby: Odds, analysis for Kentucky Derby prep

Saturday’s Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby is the final of four stops on the Fair Grounds road to Kentucky Derby 2024, and 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points are available to the eligible finishers.

Recent winners of the Louisiana Derby became Grade 1 winners and were impactful in the Triple Crown races. Epicenter won the 2022 Louisiana Derby, Travers (G1), and was second in the run for the roses and the Preakness before being named the 3-year-old champion. In 2021 Hot Rod Charlie was a top-three finisher in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes and later won the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). Girvin won in 2017 and also in the Haskell (G1). Gun Runner went from his 2016 Louisiana Derby victory and a third on the first Saturday in May to be named 2017 horse of the year with earnings of almost $16 million.

Country House and Mandaloun won the Kentucky Derby through disqualification, and both of them prepped for the run for the roses in the Louisiana Derby. Country House was fourth in 2019 and Mandaloun ran sixth in 2021.

Here is the analysis for the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby with the official track morning-line odds. It is scheduled as the finale on a 12-race card with post time set for 6:42 p.m. EDT.

1. Triple Espresso, 20-1. Omaha Beach – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 5: 1-1-1 - $94,800. If Triple Espresso runs in the Louisiana Derby, he will move from turf to dirt for the first time after five starts. He debuted last year in the Kittens Joy at Colonial Downs and closed boldly for second. In his fourth start he won a maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park in January with a wide late rally. Last seen, Triple Espresso was fourth in the Colonel Liam in Florida. He is cross-entered in Saturday’s Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park on the synthetic surface. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher is a five-time winner of the Louisiana Derby, including with Kingsbarns last year. Toss.

2. Hall of Fame, 8-1. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 3: 1-1-0 - $64,000. Appropriately, Hall of Fame is trained by Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who won this race four times, including with eventual champions Epicenter and Gun Runner. Hall of Fame sold for $1.4 million as a Saratoga yearling and broke his maiden in his second start by more than 10 lengths at Fair Grounds in January. He moved onto the Derby trail and ran seventh in a strong edition of the Risen Star (G2). Toss.

3. Antiquarian, 12-1. Preservationist – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 2: 1-1-0 - $53,000. Antiquarian is the second of three entered in this Derby prep by Pletcher. He had the lead in his debut and finished second by a half-length behind Conquest Warrior, who came back to impressively win an allowance for Shug McGaughey. Antiquarian broke his maiden at Fair Grounds in his second try after pressing the pace and beat a horse who came back to break his maiden in his next start. Toss.

4. Agate Road, 8-1. Quality Road – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr.– 6: 2-3-0 - $283,500. Agate Road is the third from Pletcher. He began his career last year with turf racing in mind. Although he started on the dirt at Saratoga in a race meant for the grass, he won the Pilgrim (G2) at Aqueduct and was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. His first race of 2024 produced a second in a turf stakes race at Gulfstream. Agate Road moved onto the Derby trail at Tampa Bay Downs in the Sam F. Davis (G3), where he rallied to get second and earn 10 Derby points. He is also cross-entered in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Win contender.

5. Catching Freedom, 4-1. Constitution – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat– 4: 2-0-1 - $277,350. Catching Freedom was a first-time maiden winner for Brad Cox at Churchill Downs in October. After running fourth in an allowance, he moved onto the Kentucky Derby trail with a victory in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn and a third in the Risen Star, earning 25 Derby points. Cox won the Louisiana Derby in 2020 with Wells Bayou. Win contender.

6. Awesome Ruta, 30-1. Mendelssohn – Joseph Foster / Mitchell Murrill – 7: 1-1-2 - $47,570. Awesome Ruta broke his maiden at Louisiana Downs by nine lengths in his second start in September. He ran second in the Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs before moving to Fair Grounds. After three allowance triesm Awesome Ruta was sixth in the Risen Star. Toss.

7. Honor Marie, 8-1. Take Charge Indy – Whit Beckman / Ben Curtis – 4: 2-1-0 - $53,750. Honor Marie was a debut winner in September at Churchill Downs by a head and then he ran second in a stacked allowance race where the top three finishers all came back to win stakes races. For Honor Marie it was the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). He made his 2024 debut in the Risen Star and finished fifth, moving his Derby points total to 15. Win contender.

8. Next Level, 30-1. Vino Rosso – Keith Desormeaux / Jose Riquelme – 8: 1-2-1 - $146,350. Next Level is the most experienced 3-year-old in the field with eight starts but has only a maiden win in his record. That victory came in his fifth start, but he already had run third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). He moved onto the Kentucky Derby trail and was seventh in the Gun Runner and eighth in the Rebel (G2). Toss.

9. Real Men Violin, 20-1. Mendelssohn – Ken McPeek / Corie Lanerie – 7: 1-4-1 - $220,825. Real Men Violin finished in the top three in his first five starts, with two of them on the turf. His initial victory was at Churchill going a mile on a sloppy track. Trainer Kenny McPeek moved him onto the Derby trail in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and he finished second to pick up 5 Derby points. McPeek won the 2002 Louisiana Derby with Repent. Interesting long shot.

10. Common Defense, 6-1. Karakontie – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 4: 1-2-0 - $325,450. Common Defense is the second McPeek runner in the field. He broke his maiden in start number two in January going a mile at Oaklawn with first-time Lasix. He went onto the Derby trail and finished fifth in the Southwest (G3) and second in the Rebel (G2), earning 27 Derby points. Win contender.

11. Tuscan Gold, 8-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione – 2: 1-0-0 - $47,100. Tuscan Gold was a maiden winner with Lasix for the first time at Gulfstream by more than six lengths and now will try the road to the Kentucky Derby for the first time. Toss.

12. Track Phantom, 3-1. Quality Road – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 6: 3-2-1 - $365,000. Track Phantom leads this field in earnings with $365,000 and Derby points with 55. After breaking his maiden in his third start, he won his next two starts with front-end efforts on the Derby trail then set the pace in the Risen Star and ended up in second by a half-length. The Risen Star was nine furlongs, and he will have to go another sixteenth of a mile in the Louisiana Derby. Joel Rosario stays on board and won the race in 2021 and 2022. Use underneath.

Summary: At 1 3/16 miles, the Louisiana Derby is the longest Kentucky Derby prep race, just a half-furlong short of the distance of the big race on the first Saturday in May. The six 3-year-olds who were in the Risen Star are the only horses who have ever run the 1 1/8-mile route at Fair Grounds. The Louisiana Derby distance is new to all of them.

Track Phantom set the pace in the Risen Star but faded to second and appeared to be challenged by the nine-furlong distance. Catching Freedom, a son of Constitution, was making up ground throughout the race and finished third, less than two lengths behind Sierra Leone. Agate Road has the look of another one who will handle the Louisiana Derby trip.

Catching Freedom will be the top choice to be played in an exacta box with Agate Road.