Wrona: Incentivise favorite for Melbourne Cup
My homeland will come to a standstill on Monday night, when 24 horses break from the gate in one of the world’s greatest handicap races, the Melbourne Cup (G1). The two-mile odyssey begins at 9 p.m. PDT, midnight EDT, near the 1/2-mile pole on Flemington’s “straight six"-furlong course. The 161st running of “the race that stops a nation” carries an $8 million purse and a chance to become part of Australian folklore.
#2 Incentivise (7-5 favorite) has been busily writing his own chapter and is on the threshold of becoming one of the most storied Melbourne Cup winners in history. The rise of Incentivise has been remarkable, given that he debuted as a 4-year-old in my home state of Queensland and finished no better than mid-pack in three nondescript races. He has not been beaten since, reeling off nine consecutive victories. Incentivise’s times and winning margins inevitably attracted lucrative offers, and the horse was transferred to the Melbourne barn of Peter Moody for the new Australian season that began in August. Moody is well acquainted with win streaks as the trainer of 25-for-25 sprint sensation Black Caviar. Like his latest acquisition, Moody also hails from humble beginnings in Queensland and graciously gives credit to Incentivise’s original trainer, Steve Tregea, who retained a share in the horse. Incentivise’s debut for Moody was also the horse’s first experience racing counter-clockwise and at Group One level. He showed tigerish tenacity to win narrowly, then repeated in similarly game style before decimating the Caulfield Cup field. He easily overcame the extreme outside gate #18, so drawing 16 of 24 in the Melbourne Cup will not deter the wagering public from making Incentivise the Cup’s shortest-priced favorite since the immortal Phar Lap in 1930.
Australian fields are listed from highest- to lowest-weighted horse (post positions do not correspond to program numbers). Thus, Incentivise’s best-performed rivals can be found at the top of the page:
#1 Twilight Payment (11-1) led throughout at 25-1 to win last year's Melbourne Cup as an 8-year-old. The Joseph O’Brien-trained gelding follows the same path back to Australia, having again placed in September’s Irish St. Leger, but he must carry an extra 5.5 pounds while trying to become the Cup’s first 9-year-old winner.
#3 Spanish Mission (8-1) brings top-shelf European form to his Australian debut. He gave the continent’s benchmark marathon horse, Stradivarius, all he could handle in August at York, losing a momentous stretch duel by a head (as the marvelous Stradivarius recorded his 16th graded-stakes victory). The well-traveled stallion has raced in Dubai, Saudi Arabia and the U.S., where he won the inaugural Jockey Club Derby at Belmont in 2019. Spanish Mission has been under a fitness cloud in Australia, being cleared by vets only this past weekend.
#4 Verry Elleegant (10-1) is the reigning Horse of the Year. Trainer Chris Waller made a late decision to give the star mare a second shot at the Cup, after she finished 7th last year. Verry Ellegant got too far back from a wide gate in 2020 but has drawn even wider this year (19). She also has more weight to carry, and is not quite performing at the elite level that saw her win five Group One races last season.
Selection: #2 Incentivise
Long shot: #22 Floating Artist (15-1). Part of the Melbourne Cup’s romance is the chance for lesser-performed horses to figure in the finish by virtue of carrying less weight. Floating Artist has had a consistent campaign, won his only Flemington start and was desperately unlucky to narrowly lose his last prep race.
The Flemington card will be broadcast on this Monday night (First Post: 7:45 p.m. EDT / 4:45 p.m. PDT) alongside cards from Randwick, Canberra and Eagle Farm. All races will be live-streamed in HD on the new Sky Racing World app, skyracingworld.com and major ADW platforms.