Fair odds: Lone speed is big weapon in short Woodward field

The Woodward Stakes has changed a lot over the past 20 years.

In 2004 two eventual horses of the year battled for $500,000 at Belmont Park with Ghostzapper winning by a zop over Saint Liam. Fifteen years ago Rachel Alexandra cemented her legacy as one of the greatest 3-year-old fillies of all time with a win in the Grade 1, $750,000 race at Saratoga.

Click here for Belmont at Aqueduct entries and results.

Now the race is a Grade 2 worth $400,000. On Saturday it will be run at what is known as the Belmont at Aqueduct meeting and just five weeks out from the Breeders’ Cup. Forget your grandfather’s Woodward. This isn’t even my Woodward.

And yet this year’s race does have some intriguing storylines despite the small field. Five were entered, but only four are expected to start following the announced exit of Kay Army.

I’m curious how this race will get bet, as three of the remaining four entrants all can win. Skippylongstocking could be lone speed, but Tapit Trice at least is capable of staying close whereas his uncoupled stablemate Crupi is a dead closer. Masqueparade is the true outsider.

The beautiful mind of trainer Todd Pletcher will have to figure out what gives him the best chance of winning. Engaging with Skippylongstocking early and often to set it up for Crupi, or trying a stalk-and-pounce trip with Tapit Trice, who would leave Crupi with more work to do but give Tapit Trice his best chance.

I’m siding with Skippylongstocking just getting it done on the front end as the most likely scenario. If he ends up odds-on, then I expect Tapit Trice to be the one worth a play.

From a Breeders’ Cup perspective, Skippylongstocking was third in last year’s Dirt Mile between eventual horse of the year Cody’s Wish and multiple Grade 1 winner National Treasure, so that path seems more likely for him.

Either of the Pletcher pair could go on to the Classic with a good showing here. Because of the odd dynamics, this short-field race could be worth a look in five weeks at Del Mar if the form is darkened a bit.