Woodward fair odds: A morning-line long shot is the clear choice

It is pretty rare that my second choice in a field of 10 is the eighth choice on the morning line, but that is the situation for the Grade 2, $400,000 Woodward Stakes on Sunday at Aqueduct.

The 1 1/8-mile race will be Costa Terra's first stakes attempt for trainer Linda Rice, who claimed the Gun Runner colt from breeder Winchell Thoroughbreds for $75,000 on May 13 at Churchill Downs. In previous stakes tries, Costa Terra was unplaced in a pair of tries on the 2022 Triple Crown trail, but he trended in the right direction this year in the Rice barn, finishing second in a pair of high-level allowance races at Saratoga.

Thanks to the presence of no. 5 Pipeline and no. 10 Film Star there should be plenty of early zip. Although the top contenders all figure to be in that second flight for Costa Terra to chase home, the price I expect to get on Costa Terra compensates us for trying to run everyone down, especially given his improving speed figures and the lack of concern about the distance.

Zandon is the most likely winner but at 2-1 morning line against fair odds of 5-2 he is unlikely to offer much value. There could be opportunity among Algiers or Tyson depending on how much Zandon or  Charge It gets bet. 

My strategy for the race will be to bet Costa Terra to win and keyed in exactas with the quartet from the previous paragraph. I'll also key Costa Terra in trifectas with Zandon and if there is a clear separation between Algiers and Tyson from Charge It and Zandon, also play a 3-6-8 exacta box.