Woodbine Oaks fair odds: Speed stretching is the likely play

One of my favorite situations as a bettor is when multiple horses figure to be similar prices, and I have a clear preference among them.

So it goes Sunday at Woodbine, where the Woodbine Oaks is the fourth of four stakes on a 10-race card. The quartet includes a couple graded stakes as well as the Plate Trial as a prep for the King's Plate. Fillies who do well in the Oaks have also known to take on the Canadian classic, including Sealy Hill in 2007 and Lexie Lou in 2014 for U.S. and Canada Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse.

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Why mention Casse? Well, he happens to train five of the 12 entrants in the Oaks, including the top two morning-line choices in Shifty and Winterberry, both for D J Stable. This type of situation often leads to bettors using both in equal or close to it strength on tickets, which I find incredibly inefficent. The chance to take a stand here allows for more coverage and-or pressing other opinions.

As seen in my fair odds, I prefer Winterberry, who has yet to contest two turns and never has been farther then the one-turn mile of the Grade 1 Summer Stakes last year, but that does not concern me given her front-end style. She took a lot of money in her 3-year-old debut and disappointed, but that second start off the layoff stretching to seven furlongs encourages me.

For a non-Casse option, Aristella interests me streching back to two turns in her third start off the layoff. If Winterberry comes back to the field, then Aristella could be the one running late and staying on at this 1 1/8-mile distance.

Horse Racing Nation coverage of the 2025 Woodbine Thoroughbred racing season is made possible in part through a sponsorship by Woodbine Entertainment Group.