Woodbine Mohawk mandatory high 5: Pace makes the race

The last few mornings, I've woken out of bed with this hanging feeling that something was coming. I'm well familiar with this feeling though, and I think most people functioning in this speed-of-light economy are too, and it doesn't help that stuff does keep happening to validate this anticipation for what's around the corner.

But sure enough, I checked my mailbox the other day and right there, in black and white ink (the envelope was white, so I don't know why that was used) was a summons. Not for jury duty – no case is equipped for my rush to judgement, but a summons from Mr. Ed DeRosa. Though much like jury duty, not showing up for Ed would result in steep fines and maybe jail time, so I am back for this: the mandatory high five payout on Saturday at Woodbine Mohawk on North America Cup night. 

Every foray I have had into the mandatory high five for HRN has been its own adventure. We've had the episodes of insane races where the most obvious stuff happens to episodes where the races don't even happen because the track thawed too much. We've had times where we've lost – many times, in fact. But also a lot of times where our eyes were on the right balls, and, most importantly, times where we just had fun. And those are the times I cherish most. 

Saturday's racing at Mohawk should be stellar, though we'll miss the matchup between Canada's star pacing filly Chantilly and U.S. divisional champ Miki And Minnie with the former scratching sick. North America Cup night nonetheless is one of the great nights of harness racing, and fitting that we will close the card with this mandatory-payout high five. 

The Approach to this Ticket

In years past, the track on North America Cup night has been strong for speed. That's not to say closers can't win, but we often see incredible down-the-road efforts on this card, whether that be due to horses getting tuned specifically for this night or it coming purely down to the surface. Keep an eye on whether this holds true in some of the earlier races, because even a fair track could still cater to speed. 

Especially with this race, I point this out because we have a speed headcase in Larry Karr. Now 10 years old, he was a second-string stakes type in his youth but at some point when he got into hands up north he began going these front-stepping races where the goal was purely to bottom the barrel. He tried that in his last race and still rated a 57.3-second middle half, but got caught as the 6-5 chalk in the end. Larry Karr potentially makes the setup of this race clear, with the only other speed clearly coming from Kyles Art stepping up in class. 

Devoid of outside leavers, Kyles Art could land into a perfect spot. He's trending in a positive direction for trainer Shayne Barrington, who has a knack for claiming horses. One downside is he hasn't beaten up tough competition, but he also just went the mile of his life last week while showing a sharp turn of foot once fed racetrack. He has the potential to match this field and continue improving. We just have to hope that other bettors are scared to take the horse moving up in class. But at the same time, Mohawk is a track where horses do take sharp money, so at the end of the day we have a balancing act analyzing this. Bottom line, he should work a great trip in this race. 

So for a lean ticket, Kyles Art could serve as the lone ‘A'. To potentially make it even leaner, a pair of chalks could serve as underneath keys given their consistency and their closing kicks: Dragononthebeach and Howmac Victor.

Dragononthebeach interestingly moves into a claimer off his 1:50.2 win against tougher horses, which I interpret as a cheeky lateral move by Menary to keep his horse against more equal competition since he has a lot of money on his card. But as a consistent 27-second-and-change closer sans his last start, MacDonald likely will come from a position where this guy should at least hit the ticket. 

In the case of Howmac Victor, his post position does not match well with his racing style. He's another, to support the case for Kyles Art, who has ascended the class ladder from the $20,000 claiming handicap to this level, and he won at this class last week off a perfect setup. But if McClure pushes out, he likely comes home even against this group. Or if he takes back and rides a helmet, he at least closes late. 

These underneath keys do not provide a ton of value, but they lessen our homework and headache by giving more equity for us to slide longer prices into other spots on a wheel. These horses would include Order On To Go, making his first start off a claim for Garry Merner and coming off a sharp close, Century Inspector, whose speed against cheaper could transpose to an on-the-ticket finish given a setup, Larry Karr, whose speed can at least hold for an underneath spot, Winmebak, who can at least grab a tiny piece if he takes another step forward third off the layoff, B Stoney, a consistent closer but also the ultimate setup horse and Head Honcho, a sharp type who really can do anything Travis Cullen wants. As such, my wheel idea goes as follows:

5 / 6,9 / 1,2,3,8,10 / 1,2,3,7,8,10 / 1,2,3,7,8,10 = $40 for $.20

5 / 1,2,3,8,10 / 6,9 / 1,2,3,7,8,10 / 1,2,3,7,8,10 = $40 for $.20

5 / 1,2,3,8,10 / 1,2,3,8,10 / 6,9 / 1,2,3,7,8,10 = $32 for $.20

5 / 1,2,3,8,10 / 1,2,3,8,10 / 1,2,3,7,8,10 / 6,9 = $32 for $.20

A $144 investment in total, but I believe the lowest payoff this would give on a $.20 ticket would be around the $1,500 mark, dependent on how much money No. 5 Kyles Art takes in the win pool. Obviously, a return of around 12-1 or 13-1 isn't ideal for something as cumbersome as a high five, but there are doors open for this to pay maybe between $3,000 and $4,000. Another downside here is that I don't really know how the second tier horses get into the race at all. They probably pump the payoff tremendously if they land on the ticket but that also means more tickets will go through the mainline field on the gate, which hurts payoffs. 

This is just one idea, at least. You are free to look at the form and amend as you please. Overall, my eye tells me this is a race where there are not many real wildcard horses. But I do find it interesting my friend John Rallis does not have my key win contender at all involved in the race, so maybe that will help our payoffs more. Or maybe I will appear more off base than my sharpie colleague. Racing, really, can go so many ways. 

Coverage of North America Cup night at Woodbine Mohawk is made possible in part through a marketing cooperative with Woodbine Entertainment.