Woodbine Mohawk jackpot: Strategy to cash Saturday night

On the harness racing calendar, the mandatory payout of the jackpot Hi 5 at Woodbine Mohawk Park has become its own sort of environmental cycle, much like when Mercury goes retro the moment anything weird starts happening or that time of the month when the night-sky rock goes to a waxing gibbous. Nature, when you think about it, is a beautiful thing.

The carryover, set to pay in full in the finale on Saturday night amounts to US$229,584 and was built over a month since the last mandatory payout June 15. With a carryover of this magnitude, players can expect to play into a pool which should total US$1 million as well as a possible null or minus takeout situation. The bet’s takeout before the 50 percent carryover on regular nights, is 15 percent.

For this mandatory payout we again have horses of the non-winners of $16,000 last five class hit the track with just a single trailer to total 11 horses in competition. A bulk of the betting, for win, will likely center on three horses, all dropping in class, including Dragononthebeach, Whatchulookin At and American History. Yet the issue with all three of these horses is that they of late have done a bulk of their racing from off the speed. That is potentially by design since they were all racing against tougher horses, but some, notably Whatchulookin At and American History, have adjusted their strategies mostly to firing with a late burst. And this is a race that does not necessarily have torrential speed in the cards, so these favorites could better operate as underneath keys for this Hi-5 race.

And then the morning-line favorite Dragononthebeach enters this race on a winning and incredibly appealing progression. He closed into a softer back half to win against tougher all the way back on May 11 and has since been class tested enough to show he probably belongs against a group like this. On top of that, he drops into this off a clear tightener where he closed ground in a 54.0-second back half to finish fourth at a big price to pace his own last half in 52.3 second. He’s a logical winner inside of this race and may try to just fire forward as the best horse in the field, so using him on top may not produce fabulous payoffs but could offer a slim entry point to then build some longer prices into the lower portions of the ticket.

Otherwise with the absence of any tormenting speed, a pair of price horses shine both as win candidates and also potential longshots to key around in the lower sectors. Uncle Shank A has been more consistent of the two and should not only appreciate the drop in class but also the move to the center of the starting gate. From this spot, he’s shown he can build ample speed to land towards the top, but he’ll have to be perfect rating on the point as he is yet to win at this level but has finished second or third five times. Wheels On Fire flanks him on the gate and he’s a gutsy veteran who will have to be having a good day, but has proven even at the creaky age of 9 he can still be productive when he can stalk the speed. Post 5 offers him the setup he needs to work into his striking position and from there everything will be up to his old bones and joints.

Everyone else inside of this field sits in the flux. Dreamfair Arnie B can work a ground-saving trip to hit the ticket, but also is a horse that tends to be more involved from outside draws. Stone Carver is clearly outclassed, but has the right post to maybe finish fifth with the right trip. The Greek Freak faces a tougher bunch inside of this class this week but will be used in the underneath parts of many tickets, cutting much value he could offer. Livinthebeachlife, like the favorites, will be trying to close into whatever speed may or may not show here, and Hungry Man doesn’t look like he’ll land into a good spot.

The only real valuable fade inside of this race I see is Poseidon Seelster, only because he’s best when he can carry his speed and from this second-tier draw he likely won’t offer a great enough price on the class drop to even warrant consideration onto the ticket. Save that money in the bankroll for some of the higher prices.

So with everything I said, here’s two different examples of how I would approach betting a race like this. 

Option 1 is less lucrative, but much more affordable given how this race sets up. Since this is a prime spot for Dragononthebeach to flaunt his ability over this group, I’d likely put him on top and then key around some of the longer-priced speeds underneath and spread the remainder. That ticket would look like this:

3 / 5,6 / 5,6 / 1,4,7,8,9 / 1,2,4,7,8,9

Every spin of that bet, keying around the 5,6 for the second, third, fourth, fifth spots, would run $10 a pop for 20 cents and maybe return in a ballpark of $600. Another approach, operating on the longshot speeds maybe carrying home the gold, would look something like this:

5,6 / 3,4,7,8 / 5,6 / 1,3,4,7,8,9 / 1,2,3,4,7,8,9

This is the more expensive option, running at $40 a bet, but would offer a return in the four-figure territory. And of course these are merely rough ideas purely on how the race looks on paper. Do not forget inside of a race like this to watch the board. If horses like the Wheels On Fire take more play than the 10-1 morning line, using him as a key on top will not be as productive for the bankroll with as much spreading as that ticket shows. Be malleable in your approach to a wager like this, and remember that nailing the first five finishers in a horse race shares many similarities with using the stars to predict people’s dreams.

Oh, and good luck betting this if Mercury has gone retro.

Coverage of Woodbine Mohawk at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by Woodbine Entertainment Group.