Woodbine Mile fair odds: Use this long shot with the favorite

The Grade 1 Woodbine Mile on Saturday at Woodbine will look different considering this year's renewal is a two-turn affair on the inner turf course while the E.P. Taylor Turf Course gets refurbished. However, plenty of familiarity remains.

The 8-5 morning line favorite is Notable Speech, and despite the suppressed price, that would actually be value against my 7-5 fair odds line. Charlie Appleby trains Notable Speech for breeder Godolphin, and William Buick has the mount. Those connections are 4-for-10 at Woodbine, including Woodbine Mile wins in 2022 with Modern Games and 2023 with Master of the Seas, though they are currently riding a four-race losing streak together. Overall, the Godolphin-Appleby connection, regardless of jockey, is 9-for-17 lifetime at Woodbine.

All that is to say these are connections you can trust to be ready, and Notable Speech looks ready for this group off a second-place finish in the Prix Jacques Le Marois (G1) at Deauville. Last year's Breeders' Mile favorite is on a losing streak of his own-having lost six straight since winning the Sussex last year, but he sheds 8-10 pounds from his previous two races, and his run style is well suited to the Woodbine inner turf course.

Notable Speech will be a strong single for me in the $5 Pick 3 that starts with a pair of Grade 1 2-year-old races also at one mile on the inner turf course.

That said, there are some alternatives in the race at big prices that can be used on back-up tickets and in the vertical exotics such as the trifecta.

Wyoming Bill finished second in the King Edward Stakes last out, and his run style fits the profile of the inner turf course. Picking up Frankie Dettori does not hurt either, as the international superstar jockey is 10-for-27 lifetime at Woodbine, including a 2021 Mile victory aboard Raging Bull for trainer Chad Brown  during a four-year stretch in which he is 3-for-5 in Grade 1 races at Woodbine.

Win For the Money is not bad at 8-1 morning line, but I have seen some steam on that one, so I'm a little concerned about actually getting around my fair odds of him, which are 9-1. His uncoupled stablemate, the fellow Mark Casse trainee My Boy Prince, should ensure an honest pace.

One Stripe, with a morning line of 5-2, is the other projected to take money in here, and I am just not as bullish on this overseas import as I am Notable Speech. For one, this will be his two-turn debut, as all the mile wins in his native South Africa were one-turn affairs. For two, trainer Graham Motion has struggled with these types of runners at Woodbine, going 0-for-22 in Grade 1 races there.