Woodbine Mile fair odds: Long shot on the rail sounds good

Team Godolphin certainly needs no introduction to Woodbine observers as its color bearers have won consecutive editions of the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile with Modern Games in 2022 and Master of the Seas in 2023. William Buck rode both horses for trainer Charlie Appleby.

Fields for all 6 graded stakes Saturday at Woodbine.

The boys in blue are back in 2024 to try to make it three in a row with Naval Power, runner up in both U.S. starts, the Makers Mark Mile (G1) in April at Keeneland and the Turf Classic (G1) on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs. He has trained all summer for this at Saratoga and likely will be odds-on to give his connections Woodbine Mile glory for a third time.

I can't back him, though.

Yes, I was against Master of The Seas last year, and that was dastardly wrong, but there are some differences this year. First, With Master of The Seas I had to rely mostly on international racing data. Although I completely trust Ragozin figures and Brisnet class ratings, the numbers are not quite an apples-to-apples comparison like we have this year with Naval Power having run twice in North America and remaining here for training.

Also, this is a better field than last year, with trainer Mark Casse having a horse in top form who could be lone speed among his three entrants.

And that does not even mention the wild card here, Playmea Tune, who has put up big numbers in just three career starts, most notably when second to the very fast Patches O'Houlihan in the Bold Venture (G3) last out on King's Plate day. Patches is the even-money morning line favorite for the Vivil Stakes, the race after the Woodbine Mile.

This is a tall order making his stakes debut in a Grade 1 while stretching out to two turns and trying turf for the first time in his fourth career start. But the price will absolutely be right on a horse with very fast figures.

Casse is a tactician with his rider assignments, so it's curious that Sahin Civaci sticks with My Boy Prince after winning aboard Filo di Arianna in gate-to-wire fashion last out. That mount likely was always meant for Kazushi Kimura, however, as the only reason he was not aboard in the King Edward Stakes on King's Plate day is he had travel troubles from Del Mar with the rescheduled Plate date.

A solo mission up top seems in the cards again for Filo di Arianna, and that makes him dangerous. My Boy Prince perhaps moved too soon in the King's Plate, striking the front after a bold move on the turn before being collared late by Caitlinhergrtness. That definitely won't work against these if it didn't work against her, but Casse directing this one here speaks well of his chances.

A note on Big Rock, the lone entrant to ship to Woodbine from overseas for the Mile. His races last year were much better than this year. Both Ragozin and Brisnet agree on that, so given the premium that North America bettors place on international horses, I have to think this one will be an underlay to turn things around off an international ship.

I plan to play Playmea Tune to win and box in an exacta with the aforementioned Casse pair. There also might be opportunity to key Playmea Tune with Naval Power in exotics, depending on how those pools are distributed beyond the favorite.

Horse Racing Nation coverage of Woodbine Mile day is made possible through a sponsorship by Woodbine Entertainment Group.