Woodbine Mile odds and analysis: 3 contenders, 1 to beat

The Grade 1, $1 million Woodbine Mile is scheduled to be run Saturday in suburban Toronto. The winner gets a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar on Nov. 2.

The Woodbine Mile has been a productive prep race for the Breeders’ Cup, with five winners from the past dozen years getting a victory in the world championships, Master of The Seas, Modern Games, World Approval, Tepin and Wise Dan.

Here is an analysis for the field of eight with the morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. Scheduled as race 10 of 12, post time is set for 6:16 p.m. EDT.

1. Playmea Tune, 8-1. Maclean’s Music – Josie Carroll / John Velazquez – 3: 2-1-0 - $141,720. Playmea Tune is a 4-year-old with only three career starts, all since May. He won his first two starts on the synthetic surface by more than 16 lengths at Woodbine pressing the pace in a pair of sprints. Last seen he rallied from a stalking position in a Grade 3 to miss the top spot by a neck. He will have to stretch out to a mile for the first time and move to the turf. Toss.

2. Naval Power, 8-5. Teofilo – Charlie Appleby / William Buick – 9: 6-2-0 - $594,549. Trainer Charlie Appleby will try to win the Woodbine Mile for the third year in a row after victories by Master of The Seas and Modern Games. Naval Power was part of the string of horses who have been stabled at Saratoga since he was second in the Makers Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland and then in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs. He lost to Master of The Seas at Keeneland and had the lead at Churchill but missed by a head. The one to beat.

3. Secret Reserve, 30-1. Giant Gizmo – Michael Mattine / Leo Salles – 26: 6-1-8 - $522,419. Secret Reserve is a multiple stakes winner with a victory in the Bold Venture (G3) in 2022 at Woodbine sprinting on the all-weather track. Recently, he was third in the King Edward and was a winner a year ago in a stakes that was restricted to Ontario-breds. Toss.

4. Big Rock, 7-2. Rock of Gibraltar – Maurizio Guarnieri / Umberto Rispoli – 14: 5-5-0 - $1,710,387. Big Rock will make his first North America start after racing in Group 1 stakes going a mile in his six most recent starts in France and England. He won the Queen Elizabeth at Ascot in October where he dominated a field of 11. This year his form has been below par has he has been getting to the lead but then weakening in the latter stages of the races. His best race would make him a serious win contender and he probably gets some class relief here, but he will need to be at the top of his game. Blinkers on. Use underneath.

5. Filo Di Arianna, 4-1. Drosselmeyer – Mark Casse / Kazushi Kimura – 17: 9-3-1 - $754,031. This 8-year-old gelding rarely runs a bad race and has eight top-three finishes in his last 10 starts. He won four Grade 2 stakes in the last two years, including the King Edward at Woodbine last month to prep for the Mile. Filo Di Arianna also won the King Edward two years ago. His best races were on the grass while racing on the lead. Win contender.

6. Win for the Money, 12-1. Mohaymen – Mark Casse / Patrick Husbands – 15: 4-5-1 - $377,230. Win for the Money is another one who moved back to the grass, and the 5-year-old became a stakes winner at Gulfstream Park in his first start of this year. In his next two races he was fourth in the Wise Dan (G2) at Churchill Downs and second at Ellis Park in a preview for the Kentucky Downs Turf Mile. Casse won the Woodbine Mile in 2016 and 2017 with Tepin and World Approval. Live long shot.

7. Niagara Skyline, 20-1. War Dancer – John Charalambous / Rafael Hernandez – 22: 6-5-2 - $329,055. This 6-year-old gelding has been an allowance horse throughout his career racing at Woodbine in all but two of his 22 starts. His only try in a stakes race was a fifth-place finish in the New York Stallion Series at Aqueduct in December. Toss.

8. My Boy Prince, 6-1. Cairo Prince – Mark Casse / Sahin Civaci – 11: 6-3-1 - $989,740. My Boy Prince had a three-race winning streak broken when he finished second in the King’s Plate last month after getting the lead. He will cut back in distance to the mile, the same distance where last year he finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita and second in the Summer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine. He will face older horses for the first time coming back in three weeks. Win contender.

Summary: Trainer Charlie Appleby won the Woodbine Mile the last two years with horses coming from Great Britain who went on to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. With Naval Power, he is poised to win the prestigious Canadian race with yet another Godolphin homebred ridden by William Buick.

Naval Power has never run worse than second in his nine starts, and those two place-finishes came this year in U.S. Grade 1 races. Since then, he stayed and trained at Saratoga all summer. The horses in Appleby’s American band ran extremely well in the biggest turf races acrodd the country.

Naval Power is the top choice to win the Woodbine Mile. There are a few horses that have a chance to compete the exacta but Win for the Money is a live long shot.

Horse Racing Nation coverage of Woodbine Mile day is made possible through a sponsorship by Woodbine Entertainment Group.