Ky. Derby prep fair odds: Sky's the limit in Wood Memorial
My picks for the Grade 1 Blue Grass and Wood Memorial (G2) picks are a lot alike.
They're both two-start colts from powerhouse barns who have yet to run on a track labeled as fast.
Playing the role of the Blue Grass Stakes' Just a Touch in the Wood Memorial on Saturday at Aqueduct is Tuscan Sky, a winner of both his career starts who will make his stakes debut while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles.
The opportunity to play this Todd Pletcher trainee should be there as Deterministic looks like he will take at least as much money as our pick. Indeed, the Gotham Stakes winner is 7-5 on the morning line with Tuscan Sky at 4-1. Horse Racing Nation's AI line has it much closer, with Tuscan Sky slightly favored. This is one instance I hope HRN is wrong!
Deterministic beat Just a Touch in the Gotham (G3). There is no doubt I respect this one's talent given I picked the horse he beat in the other Eastern time zone Kentucky Derby prep this week, but I just respect Tuscan Sky's talent more.
Although Deterministic got a better Ragozin Figure in the Gotham than either of the two races Tuscan Sky has run so far, it wasn't that much faster relative to Tuscan Sky. But it was so much faster than his own debut that a regression is likely and makes Tuscan Sky easily the fastest of the rest.
In an allowance win last out on Risen Star Stakes day at Fair Grounds, Tuscan Sky beat Nash, who was well-regarded but had lost some luster. Nash came back to win a stakes at Oaklawn, though, and I thought that allowance was better than most stakes to date.
Tuscan Sky is a play for me at 5-2, and I expect to single him in all multi-race wagers. From a vertical exotic standpoint, El Grande O is intriguing underneath given his move forward when third in the Gotham. If he's double-digit odds, then I will key with the top two choices and press with Tuscan Sky.
Speaking of multi-race wagers, a reminder that the Wood is part of the $3 Triple Crown prep trio, which also includes the Blue Grass and the Santa Anita Derby.