Ky. Derby prep fair odds: Shop for a price in Wood Memorial

First, an apology.

In the tweet below, I unfairly maligned the 100th running of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on Saturday at Aqueduct when commenting my surprise at the race having only one last-out stakes winner. This was silly for two reasons.

One reason is that this is more common than uncommon with Kentucky Derby preps. To wit, the same stat applies to all three of the Arkansas, Florida and Louisiana derbys run this year

Second, who cares? This is a competitive field of 12, and at least half the field are logical contenders whom I'd be excited to bet at the right price.

I suppose the conversation begins with Captain Cook, the only last-out stakes winner in the group. He is both the morning-line favorite and my most likely winner, so his number is certainly one to watch on the board.

There is every reason to think he will fire his best shot here given the freshening off a career best effort, but the question mark is distance. Progeny of Practical Joke might be at their best going middle distances, and there is a lot of pace dynamics present in this race where a breather for any forwardly placed horse seems unlikely. My absolute floor on whether Capitan Cook is a good bet is 5-2.

Because of all the speed in here, I am most hoping that I get my price on Hill Road. Fair odds are 7-1, making him the fourth choice for me. But with Captain Cook and Rodriguez expected to take money and both Sand Devil and Grande wild cards in that regard as well, maybe we get there with Hill Road.

This Chad Brown trainee obviously needed a race after the four-month layoff from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and he got no pace help with Owen Almighty going gate-to-wire in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). 

After Hill Road, Grande probably has the most upside by virtue of having fewer races to go off of, but he will have to perform better than his Todd Pletcher-trained stablemate Disruptor did in the Florida Derby (G1) in order to contend here.