Wood Memorial fair odds: Deep field equals opportunity
It is rare that the most likely winner in a field of 12 graded stakes runners is a maiden, but that is the case for the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on Saturday at Aqueduct where a dozen 3-year-olds are expected to leave the gate following the scratch of Clear the Air.
No. 1 Dreamlike is the 7-2 second choice on the morning line, but the 3-1 top choice for me off his fast-figure runner-up finish to Empirestrikesfast in a maiden race March 11 at Gulfstream Park. Dreamlike is the first horse from that field to run back.
His chief adversary is No. 13 Hit Show, unraced since taking the Withers eight weeks ago. His draw leaves the top two choices as the bread of the Wood Memorial sandwich. I mention this only to be clever, as I do not think it compromises either's chances enough to mitigate the "numbers" advantage both have over the field.
The key to whatever price you're willing to take on Dreamlike is whether you think trainer Todd Pletcher putting the blinkers on will make a difference. Dreamlike is plenty fast enough to win this based on his last, but that tough loss at 1-5 is hard to excuse, even if it was 8 1/4 lengths back to third.
Unless the public goes wild on Dreamlike, Hit Show will certainly be an underlay. Apart from his post, I do not love the layoff. It did not work for his stablemate Instant Coffee on the Lecomte-Louisiana Derby path, when the colt skipped the Risen Star. The Gotham is a slightly different dynamic given its one-turn mile configuration, but there's enough "there" there to take pause at a short price.
Speaking of Hit Show's stablemate, though, the one he has in this race - Slip Mahoney - had every excuse to throw in a clunker in the Gotham, but kept running on at the end. His Brisnet pace ratings suggest an ability to stay closer, especially being by Arrogate out of an A.P. Indy mare and stretching out to two turns for the first time.
No. 11 Classic Catch is one of three Todd Pletcher-trained horses in here, and like both Crupi and Dreamlike, carries the colors of an owner who has a big Derby contender in the Pletcher barn already: Whisper Hill Farm owns both Classic Catch and Blue Grass favorite Tapit Trice while Repole and St. Elias Stable have champion Kentucky Derby favorite Forte under their colors.
Anyway, Classic Catch's wins both came at 1 1/8 miles, and if anyone goes with Arctic Arrogance to rev up the pace then he can absolutely be a part of the mix late.