Wood Memorial 2023: Odds, post positions, analysis

The Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial, which will be run Saturday at Aqueduct, is the final official prep race in New York on the road to Kentucky Derby 2023. The 1 1/8-mile race drew a field of 13 3-year-olds who will compete for the 100-40-30-20-10 points that go to the top five eligible finishers.

The Wood field includes seven horses who have earned Kentucky Derby qualifying points, with 24 being the top total for any of them. Currently, it takes 34 points to make the top 20 on the official points list that is published by Churchill Downs. Three other horses in the Wood have made at least one start on the Derby trail without earning any points.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Wood Memorial which listed as race 11 out of 11 with post time set for 6:16 pm ET. Each horse is shown with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff, his sire, trainer, jockey, record, purse earnings and Derby qualifying points.

1. Dreamlike (8-1, Gun Runner, Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz, 2: M-2-0, $30,100, 0 Derby points) Dreamlike was a $975,000 yearling purchase who did not make his first start until February at Gulfsteam when he was second going a mile. Last month, he was second again going an additional half-furlong as the odds-on favorite in a field of six with another stalking trip. Blinkers go on for the first time. Toss.

2. Shadow Dragon (15-1, Army Mule, Bill Mott, Eric Cancel, 4: 1-1-0, $103,570, 13 Derby points) Won his first start at Aqueduct in October against state-breds with a big closing move. He was sixth in a New York-bred stakes and then went to Florida. He surprised the Holy Bull (G3) field at 34-1 to finish second beaten by less than a length. Tougher competition in the Fountain of Youth (G2) produced a fifth-place finish. Use underneath.

3. Knox (30-1, Brethen, Saffie Joseph Jr., Jose Gomez, 6: 1-1-1, $103,320, 0 Derby points) Knox was a debut winner in June at Gulfstream Park for Saffie Joseph against a field of seven at 5-1. He then tried a pair of Florida Stallion series stakes and finished fourth and then third. Knox has two starts this year with a second in an allowance going seven furlongs. Toss.

4. General Banker (20-1, Central Banker, James Ferraro, Frankie Pennington, 11: 1-3-3, $429,600, 24 Derby points) General Banker made his first seven starts against New York-breds, breaking his maiden in the seventh start by more than eight lengths in a New York Stallion Series stakes race. He then moved onto the Kentucky Derby qualifying races at Aqueduct and finished third three times, twice at a mile and once at nine furlongs. Use underneath.

5. Slip Mahoney (6-1, Arrogate, Brad Cox, Dylan Davis, 4: 1-2-0, $126,100, 20 Derby points) Slip Mahoney made all four starts at Aqueduct and improved in every start. He broke his maiden in his third start with a front-end effort going a mile. Slip Mahoney became a buzz horse for his rally from far back in the Gotham (G3) following a slow start to finish second after going eight wide around the turn and ending up nine-wide for the stretch run. Top choice.

6. Clear the Air (30-1, Ransom the Moon, William Walden, Sheldon Russell, 4: 1-0-0, $58,610, 5 Derby points) Clear the Air will scratch from the Wood Memorial and run instead in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on Saturday, trainer Will Walden told HRN on Thursday.

7. Artic Arrogance (5-1, Frosted, Linda Rice, Jose Lezcano, 6: 2-4-0, $313,400, 16 Derby points) This New York-bred hit the board in all but one of his career starts, with the first three against state-breds and the last three being second-place finishes in open-company stakes at Aqueduct with fields of seven. Each time, Arctic Arrogance pressed the pace or was on the lead in races ranging from six furlongs to the Wood Memorial distance. This Grade 2 will have the biggest field that he has ever faced, but once again there is not a lot of early speed signed on. Blinkers come off after trying them last race. Use underneath.

8. Lord Miles (15-1, Curlin, Saffie Joseph Jr., Paco Lopez, 4: 1-0-1, $51,100, 5 Derby points) Lord Miles broke his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream in November with an almost six-length victory from a stalking position. Joseph then moved him to stakes races in Florida, where he ran third in the Mucho Macho Man and last month was fifth in the Tampa Derby (G3). Toss.

9. Crupi (15-1, Curlin, Todd Pletcher, Kendrick Carmouche, 6: M-2-3, $73,600, 0 Derby points) Still a maiden after six starts, Crupi finished behind horses who have been prominent on the Derby trail, including Disarm, Instant Coffee and Slip Mahoney. His last start was in February in the Risen Star (G2), where was seventh after a slow start put him far back in last in that field of 14. He made two starts at Aqueduct, including one in January when he was a head behind Slip Mahoney. Distance is not a concern for this well-bred son of Curlin. Live long shot.

10. Uncle Jake (20-1, Uncle Mo, Brittany Russell, Jevian Toledo, 2: 1-0-0, $35,220, 0 Derby points) Uncle Jake broke his maiden in his second start last month by more than nine lengths with a front-end effort as an odds-on favorite at Laurel Park when he stretched out to a mile against a field of six. Toss.

11. Classic Catch (6-1, Classic Empire, Todd Pletcher, Trevor McCarthy, 4: 2-0-2, $104,410, 0 Derby points) Classic Catch made his first two starts at Aqueduct in the fall, breaking his maiden in his second race by more than two lengths when he stretched out to nine furlongs. He then went to Florida with Todd Pletcher and made two starts in allowances, with a third at Tampa Bay Downs and then a win at Gulfstream Park by two lengths after a stalking trip going the Wood's distance. The last two starts were with Lasix, but he did run well without the medication as a 2-year-old. Use underneath.

12. Mr. Swagger (30-1, Maclean’s Music, Juan Carlos Avila, Carlos Olivero, 2: 1-0-0, $45,125, 0 Derby points) Mr. Swagger is based at Parx but made both starts at Aqueduct where he was a debut winner at the end of January in a field of seven. He stepped up to the Derby trail in the Gotham (G3) and finished sixth after a bumpy trip put him toward the back of a big field. Toss.

13. Hit Show (2-1, Candy Ride, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 4: 3-0-0, $264,375, 20 Derby points) Hit Show dominated the Withers (G3) at the Big A, which was run at 1 1/8 miles. He was the favorite in all four starts, which were run at four tracks and produced three wins after stalking trips. Hit Show has been off for two months as trainer Brad Cox targeted the Wood for his next start because he showed an affinity for the New York City track. Hit Show will need a top-three finish to have enough points to join stablemates Angel of Empire and Jace’s Road in the top 20 of the points list. Win contender.

Summary: Brad Cox will try to win for the eighth time on road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby with the likely top two favorites Hit Show and Slip Mahoney.

Hit Show won twice as a 2-year-old and then was an impressive winner when he shipped up to Aqueduct and drew off to a 5 1/2-length victory in the Withers in February. Hit Show trained steadily at Fair Grounds to prepare for the Wood.

After Slip Mahoney made a bold rally to finish second in the Gotham, many experts felt that he was the best horse on the day. For a horse who had preferred to be part of the early pace, he had his work cut out for him when be broke poorly, was in 13th place early, and had to race eight wide heading into the stretch.

Cox should have Hit Show and Slip Mahoney ready to run their best because they both need a strong finish in the Wood to get into the run for the roses. They have an edge over this big field, but Slip Mahoney got the better post position draw and will be the top choice.