Wood Memorial 2019: Odds and analysis

As part of the final wave of qualifying races for the 2019 Kentucky Derby, Saturday's Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial carries qualifying points 100-40-20-10 scale. And it's notable that since the points system was instituted, each Derby winner has prepped in one of these major races.

The Wood drew a field of 11 from which only Tacitus and Haikal have already secured enough points to start in the big race on the first Saturday in May. Ahead of post time at 6 p.m. ET, here is a full-field analysis along with the morning line

Tax [ML 9-2 – Arch – D. Gargan/J. Alvarado – 4: 2-1-1 - $186,300 – 12 Derby points] The ownership group claimed Tax out of his maiden victory at Keeneland in October upon the recommendation of trainer Danny Gargan. He then shipped to Gargan’s New York barn, where he started next in the Remsen (G2) in December. Tax prefers to stay close to the early pace and ran third on that day against a strong field. In the Withers (G3), he stumbled a bit out of the gate and was able to rally to get a victory on the Derby trail. The top choice.

Tacitus [ML 5-2 – Tapit – W. Mott/J. Ortiz – 3: 2-0-0 - $253,000 – 50 Derby points] The hopes of trainer Bill Mott on the Derby trail seem to be left with this gray son of Tapit. The Juddmonte Farms runner returns to Aqueduct, where he broke his maiden going a mile back in November as an odds-on favorite. Word was out that Tacitus was a talented runner. He had almost four-months between starts, when he raced next in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Adding Lasix on that day, he rallied boldly up the inside to secure 50 Derby qualifying points. Win contender.

Hoffa’s Union [ML 6-1 – Union Rags – M.Casse/D. Davis – 1: 1-0-0 - $22,800 – 0 Derby points] This 15 1/2-length winner of his debut at Laurel Park in February was sold after that race to a partnership that includes Gary Barber, and that meant a move to Mark Casse's barn. The gelding earned an impressive Beyer Speed Figure of 95 in the mile and a sixteenth race while racing on the front end. Since then, he has been working at Casse’s training center in Florida. The trainer is never afraid to take a shot with his horses, and you have to wonder just how good this one could be. Live longshot.

Haikal [ML 7-2 – Daaher – K. McLauglin/R. Maragh – 4: 3-1-0 - $298,900 – 50 Derby points] Haikal is a neck away from being unbeaten. Tight finishes are standard for this Shadwell homebred, whose deep closing style has been so successful in all four starts at Aqueduct. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has moved Haikal steadily up in distance and in class, and each time he responded with a creditable effort. Now, he must add another furlong and go two turns. Clearly, Haikal loves the Big A, which is a track that has played fairly all winter long. Win contender.

Final Jeopardy [ML 8-1 – Street Sense – Ja. Servis/M. Franco – 3: 2-0-1 - $57,750 – 0 Derby points] This son of Street Sense comes from the same connections as the surprise Florida Derby (G1) winner Maximum Security. Last seen winning a one-turn mile allowance race at Gulfstream, he defeated a solid field that included Todd Pletcher-trained Solado. His running lines indicate a stalking style fits well on this Aqueduct track, and it is not unusual for Jason Servis trainees to make successful leaps in competition level. Live longshot.

Overdeliver [ML 20-1 – Overanalyze – T. Pletcher/K. carmouche – 2: 1-1-0 - $34,000 – 0 Derby points] This lightly raced runner from the team of owner Mike Repole and trainer Pletcher sold for $100,000 as a yearling. He is likely to provide speed to this field. Overdeliver pushed the pace in his debut victory at Gulfstream in December and then bobbled at the break in the Pasco at Tampa Bay Downs. That day, he still managed to be second behind Win Win Win’s track record performance. Use underneath.

Not That Brady [ML 20-1 – Big Brown – R. Rodriguez/R. Gutierrez – 7: 2-2-0 - $158,900 – 4 Derby points] Draw a line through his Gotham (G3) race, in which he was basically eased after looking difficult to handle before the race. The New York-bred, who lost the mile and an eighth Withers by a head to Tax after setting the pace, comes back for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. In all of his races except for the Gotham (G3), he flew out of the gate to race on the lead. If all goes well, this son of Big Brown will ensure a fast early pace. Toss.

Grumps Little Tots [ML 30-1 – Sky Mesa – Ja. Servis/J. Lezcano – 4: 1-2-1 - $63,600 – 0 Derby points] This gelding is another from the red-hot, high-percentage Servis barn. Whereas Final Jeopardy ships in from Florida, this late Triple Crown nominee is based in New York. The son of Sky Mesa was purchased for $37,000 as a yearling by one of his current owners, Michael Dubb. It took him four tries to break his maiden, which he did in a one-turn mile in February. Toss.

Math Wizard [ML 30-1 – Algorithms – S. Joseph Jr./E. Cancel – 7: 2-1-2 - $39,873 – 0 Derby points] This Gulfstream Park-based runner was claimed three races in a row, twice for $16,000, and again on Jan. 31 for $25,000 by his current connections. His last start came on March 15 at Gulfstream, where he rallied for second in a starter allowance going a mile. This is clearly a very ambitious move. Pretender.
 

Outshine [ML 6-1 – Malibu Moon – T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez – 4: 2-1-0 - $150,900 – 20 Derby points] This $625,000 yearling purchase recorded an early debut victory last May as a 2-year-old at Belmont Park, which was followed by a disappointing fifth in the Tremont. The son of Malibu Moon returned from an eight-month layoff with an allowance victory at Gulfstream Park in February. His debut on the Derby trail produced a second-place finish to Tacitus. Expect a stalking trip from Outshine in his Aqueduct debut. Use underneath.

Joevia [ML 30-1 – Shanghai Bobby – G. Sacco/N. Juarez – 3: 1-2-0 - $71,600 – 0 Derby points] Trainer Gregg Sacco, who has opted to keep his leading 3-year-old Mind Control racing around one-turn, will try Joevia on the Derby trail instead. This colt broke his maiden during the summer at Monmouth Park and then did not race again until February, when he was beaten by just a neck in the Jimmy Winkfield by Haikal. A month later, he ran second in the Private Terms at Laurel while going two turns and staying just behind the early pace. This is an improving horse. Use underneath.

Summary: The three major players in the Wood in Tax, Tacitus, and Haikal all won their last races on the Derby trail with advantageous pace setups.

It appears that there will be a legitimate early pace with the speedy Not That Brady and Hoffa’s Union in the field. Tax, Overdeliver, and Joevia should be close behind knowing that Not That Brady carried his speed for nine furlongs in the Withers. Once again, Tacitus and Haikal will be making a late run down the long Aqueduct stretch.

In the end, I believe that Tax will take the lead from his stalking position and will have to hold off the late run from Haikal. Tax gets the nod as my top choice if in fact he turns out to be the third choice in the field with more attractive odds than Haikal.