Withers fair odds: Two obvious choices in Kentucky Derby prep

Saturday's Grade 3 Withers, a points prep for Kentucky Derby 2023, features the classic handicapper conundrum, "fastest horse" or "pace makes the race"?

No. 1 Arctic Arrogance is very clearly the fastest horse in the field of seven for the race at Aqueduct. But there are questions.

First is the 9-furlong distance. Arctic Arrogance navigated it OK when second in the slop in the Remsen Stakes (G2), but the Brisnet Ultimate PPs has sire Frosted's average win distance of progeny at an uninspiring 6.6 furlongs.

Then there's the pace. Of the seven entrants, only No. 4 Hit Show is not an "E" or "E/P" type on the aforementioned Brisnet PPs.

Arctic Arrogance might be fastest, but can he run his best with other pace in the rest? I give it a 2-1 chance that the answer is "yes." But if that does not come to pass, then No. 4 Hit Show is most likely other winner.

With Arctic Arrogance at 2-1 and Hit Show at 5-2, if they were a coupled entry, then fair odds on the pair would be 3-5. 

After those two, only No. 2 Prove Right would truly shock. He's one of two in the field of seven not nominated to the Triple Crown. The other, Pennsylvania-bred Ninetyprcentmaddie, has good numbers, but I'm not sure about Weigelia siring a graded-stakes winner at nine furlongs.