Withers fair odds: Gambling on a fast pace in Ky. Derby prep

Omaha Omaha has made the most of racing against fast paces in his last two starts, winning an entry-level allowance race by seven lengths before a runner-up finish to Cyclone Station in the one-turn-mile Jerome Stakes four weeks ago.

The Laurel Park-based Audible colt is hoping for similar dynamics in the Withers on Saturday at Aqueduct, and there are some things in the Brisnet ultimate past performances to like.

For one, the Withers is 1 1/8 miles, and Omaha Omaha is the only entrant with a two-turn win on dirt. Surfside Moon broke his maiden in a two-turn turf race at Delaware Park but in a slow time, and a subsequent dirt effort was non-competitive.

Captain Cook is almost certainly the colt Omaha Omaha will have to run down, and the likelihood of that comes down to who, if anyone, runs with Captain Cook early. 

Captain Cook exploded to a 9 1/4-length maiden score in his first start for trainer Richard Dutrow after St. Elias Stable bought the Practical Joke colt from breeder Marylou Whitney Stables for $410,000 at the Keeneland November sale.

I am a little nervous about 1 1/8 miles for a colt by Practical Joke out of an Indian Charlie mile, especially if the undefeated Global Steve goes with this one from the rail. That one has a pair of wins going seven furlongs at Parx, and the extra two furlongs here are sure to be an acid test for the son of notable turf sprinter Bucchero.

Omaha Omaha is the projected value here, and I will plan a win bet only, as exacta value is unlikely given Captain Cook looks best of this group. I'm just not sure he can see the trip out with any sort of pressure.