Withers Stakes: Odds, analysis for Kentucky Derby prep
Saturday’s Grade 3, $250,000 Withers is the fourth of six stops on the Aqueduct road to the Kentucky Derby 2024, and 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points are available to the top five eligible finishers.
Recent winners of the Withers include the $1.3 million earner and 2022 Preakness victor Early Voting. In 2020 Max Player went on to run fifth in the Kentucky Derby, win the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in 2021 and earn $1.5 milllion. Tax became a millionaire with a victory in the Jim Dandy (G2) in 2019 and a fourth in the Belmont Stakes. Bernardini made the Withers his first stakes win and went on to victory in three Grade 1 races with $3 million earned.
Here is the analysis for the 1 1/8-mile Withers with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Withers is scheduled as race 9 on a 10-race card with post time set for 3:55 p.m. EST.
1. Speed Runner, 5-1. Gun Runner – Todd Pletcher / Jose Lezcano – 2: 1-0-1 - $57,550. Speed Runner won a maiden race in his second try at Aqueduct in December by a neck going nine furlongs against a field of six. In his October debut at the Big A, he was a one-paced third at 2-1. Use underneath.
2. Deposition, 20-1. Constitution – Uriah St. Lewis / Dexter Haddock – 6: 1-0-1 - $45,775. Deposition broke his maiden in his fifth try going two turns at Parx Racing in November as the favorite in a seven-horse field. He shipped to Laurel for the Heft Stakes and faded to seventh and last. Toss.
3. Lightline, 5-2. City of Light – Brad Cox / Manny Franco – 3: 1-2-0 - $69,850. Lightline won his first race at Horseshoe Indianapolis by almost 14 lengths as the favorite going a mile in September. He then ran second in a pair of allowances at Keeneland and Oaklawn. In the Oaklawn race, he rallied from last to finish behind Carbone, who is unbeaten in two starts for Steve Asmussen and moves to the Derby trail in the Southwest (G3) at 7-2 on the morning line. Trainer Brad Cox won the Withers last year with Hit Show. Use underneath.
4. El Grande O, 3-1. Take Charge Indy – Linda Rice / Kendrick Carmouche – 9: 3-4-1 - $349,000. This New York-bred is the top earner and most experienced horse in the field with nine starts. Only once did El Grande O fail to finish in the top three, and he has three victories. He broke his maiden on the turf against state-breds in July in his third start and won a pair of New York-bred stakes races with front-end efforts. In January, he moved onto the Kentucky Derby trail, where he set the pace in the Jerome and finished second to earn five Derby qualifying points. Trainer Linda Rice won the Withers in 2020 with Max Player. Top choice.
5. Seminole Chief, 8-1. Girvin – Jack Sisterson / Trevor McCarthy – 3: 2-0-0 - $195,960. Seminole Chief won the first start of his career at Finger Lakes by eight lengths going five furlongs as the favorite. The Florida-bred was then sent to Gulfstream Park to race in a pair of Florida Stallion Series stakes races. In October he had a rough start and was never a contender but then in December he stretched out to two turns, put blinkers on, pressed the pace, survived a stretch duel and won. Seminole Chief ships back to New York to try the Derby trail. Use underneath.
6. Society Man, 15-1. Good Magic – Danny Gargan / Isaac Castillo – 2: M-0-1 - $10,830. Society Man is still a maiden after two starts. He did very little running in his debut at Saratoga in July and then ran an improved third at Aqueduct in October going 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Danny Gargan was a Withers winner with Tax in 2019. Toss.
7. Mission Beach, 6-1. Curlin – Brittany Russell / Dylan Davis – 4: 2-0-0 - $99,600. Mission Beach was a $400,000 yearling purchase and was sent to Bob Baffert. He was a debut winner at Del Mar as the odds-on favorite in a seven-horse field. Mission Beach shipped east to Saratoga for the Hopeful (G1) where he pressed the pace, got the lead and weakened to fifth. Sent back to the West Coast, he again faded badly and ran fourth in the Bob Hope (G3). Since then he was moved to the barn of Maryland-based trainer Brittany Russell and won an allowance at Laurel Park with a closing move. The son of Curlin also has distance breeding on the female side. Use underneath.
8. Uncle Heavy, 10-1. Social Inclusion – Robert Reid Jr. / Mychel Sanchez – 3: 2-0-0 - $156,080. This Pennsylvania-bred was a debut winner at Parx in October at 7-1 where he defeated a horse that came back to win his next start. The next two races for Uncle Heavy were in state-bred stakes. He was fifth in the first one after he ducked in at the start, putting him in last early on. He was a winner going two turns and once again was successful stalking the pace. Trainer Butch Reid won the Withers in 2010 with Afleet Again. Live long shot.
9. Khanate, 10-1. Hightail – Todd Pletcher / Eric Cancel – 5: 1-0-1 - $62,820. Khanate broke his maiden in his third start at Keeneland in October by more than 10 lengths in a race restricted by a $50,000 auction price. In a Churchill Downs allowance he set the pace, ran into tight quarters down the stretch and finished sixth. He also tried the Derby trail in the Jerome where he was third and picked up 2 Derby points. Trainer Todd Pletcher has past three Withers wins. Toss.
Summary: A fast pace is projected in the Withers, and the Aqueduct track can be deep and tiring during the winter. El Grande O is the most experienced horse in the field with nine starts, three wins and the highest earnings. The Linda Rice runner could get loose on the lead and control the pace.
El Grande O is the top choice. Uncle Heavy, Lightline and Speed Runner are the ones to use in an exacta key box with the top choice.