Withers fair odds: Seeking value for Kentucky Derby prep in N.Y.

The first major test for 3-year-olds going past 1 1/16 miles on the road to the Kentucky Derby 2024 is the Grade 3 Withers Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct.

Aqueduct is also home to the first 1 1/8-mile points race in the late-fall Remsen Stakes (G3), but none of the Withers entrants was in that race. Two of these horses did contest a maiden race at 1 1/8 miles, though, with Speed Runner winning and Society Man 4 3/4 lengths back in third.

Click here for Aqueduct entries and results.

Speed Runner is one of the two in here who I like at this trip with El Grande O catching my eye as well after trying to lead them all the way in the one-turn mile Jerome Stakes following a gate-to-wire win at that same trip in a New York-bred stakes race. Horse Racing Nation Sire Analytics support El Grande O being able to get this trip on the front end, given the relative lack of other early zip.

Lightline is unplayable as a top contender let alone at the 8-5 morning-line price. He has just not run as fast as either of my top two contenders, and a favorite in his first stakes try just feels like an underlay to me.