Withers 2026: Odds, analysis for Saturday's Kentucky Derby prep

Saturday’s $200,000 Withers is the fourth stop on the New York road to Kentucky Derby 2026 and offers 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points to the top five finishers. A field of eight was drawn, and seven are expected to run the 1 1/8-mile distance at Aqueduct.

The recent frigid and wintry conditions at Aqueduct caused racing to be cancelled for Wednesday to Friday and it also had a significant effect on the field size as many other possible runners did not enter Tuesday. Only one horse has experience on the Derby trail, and that was a fifth-place finish. The field has two New-York and one Pennsylvania-breds. The only stakes winner in the field did it against statebreds

Here is a full-field analysis for the Withers with morning-line odds by Brian Zipse from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Withers is scheduled as race 9 of 10, with post time set for 4:08 p.m. EST.

1. Schoolyardsuperman, 5-2. Practical Joke – Chad Brown / Manny Franco – 3: 1-1-0 - $63,750. Schoolyardsuperman broke his maiden in his third try last month and did it with a front-end effort going a one-turn mile. He beat a field of seven by almost six lengths. His career started in September with a fall after he clipped heels as the favorite when he was forwardly placed. Schoolyardsuperman was able come back from that incident and finish second a month or so later after pressing the pace. Brown seeks his third Withers victory to go along with Risk Taking in 2021 and Early Voting in 2022. Franco has four Withers wins to his credit from 2015 to last year with Captain Cook. Win contender. 

2. Fourth And One, 6-1. Maxfield – Jeremiah Englehart / Jaime Rodriguez – 4: 1-2-1 - $114,000. Fourth and One is a New York-bred gelding who has made four starts against state-breds. He debuted at Saratoga in the Funny Cide and finished second in a four-horse field. A month later he was second again facing maidens. In October he set the pace in a stakes at Aqueduct and was third. Last month the son of Maxfield got his maiden victory by more than seven lengths going a mile in a field of six. Use underneath.

3. Project Ace, Scratch. War of Will – Dale Romans / Corey Lanerie – 3: 1-1-1 - $77,245. He is expected to run in the Holy Bull (G3). 

4. Talk to Me Jimmy, 10-1. Modernist – Rudy Rodriguez / Ruben Silvera – 2: 1-0-1 - $53,600. Talk to Me Jimmy is a New York-bred who broke his maiden in his second start going a one-turn mile after setting all of the fractions and drawing off to win by more than five lengths in a field of eight. The second-place finisher came back to win his next start. Live long shot.

5. Mailata, 9-2. Maximus Mischief – Robert Reid Jr. / Mychal Sanchez – 5: 3-0-1 - $159,500. Mailata is the winner of his last three starts at Parx Racing after being hard to handle in his first two starts in maiden special weights. In October he got his first victory going a two-turn mile with a front-end effort. The Pennsylvania-bred moved on to win the Pennsylvania Nursery for statebreds going wire to wire for seven furlongs. Last month he bested a field of three in the Future Stars by 19 lengths while under wraps. Butch Reid is not a stranger to shipping horses to Aqueduct for stakes during the winter meeting as he twice won the Withers in 2010 with Afleet Again and in 2014 with Uncle Heavy. Top pick.

6. Ottinho, 2-1. Quality Road – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 2: 1-0-1 - $56,950. Ottinho broke his maiden in his second try after finishing third in his debut. The Three Chimneys Farm homebred beat a field of eight  by a head going nine furlongs while racing on the lead with 8-5 odds. Remember also that Ottinho is a half-brother of Gun Runner. Win contender. 

7. Grittiness, 10-1. Curlin – Todd Pletcher / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 4: M-1-0 - $28,750. Grittiness is still a maiden after four starts, which include a second in a maiden at Aqueduct in November in a field of four. In December he finished fifth in the Grade 2 Remsen which got him 1 Derby point. Pletcher is a three-time winner of the Withers in 2008, 2013 and 2015. Blinkers come off. Toss. 

8. Star Sweeper, 20-1. Rock Your World – Louis Linder Jr. / Angel Rodriguez – 4: 2-2-0 - $93,000. Star Sweeper is another Parx-based 3-year-old who is shipping up for the Withers. He was a debut winner in September in a field of 12 where he pressed the pace and edged away to a two-length margin at 5-1. He tried two stakes, with a fifth at Delaware Park and then an eighth at Laurel Park in November. Most recently he was victorious in a sprint allowance, this time with more of a stalking trip. The nine-furlong distance seems like a big ask. Toss.

Summary: The Withers field lacks racing experience, especially at nine furlongs at Aqueduct, which can be daunting for horses who just became 3-year-olds. Fast fractions are expected, according to the pace projector, and combined with the distance, that gives closers the advantage. Mailata ships up from Parx with three wins in a row for trainer Butch Reid, who has won the Withers twice including in 2024. Expect Mailata to sit behind the pace and use his experience to his advantage. Mailata is the top pick.