With softer turf at Breeders' Cup, which horses benefit?

Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

With rain falling throughout Thursday here in Louisville, Ky., the turf is rated "good" for Breeders' Cup Friday and could remain that way for Saturday's races. So what does it mean for contenders used to firmer footing?

Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system, examined that, concluding that the Europeans will hold an advantage over their American counterparts on softer going.

For instance, multiple Grade 1 winner Oscar Performance is one runner Shutty sees having a disadvantage in Saturday's Breeders’ Cup Mile.

“That horse is going to be really compromised when it comes to soft going," he said. "If you look at the horse’s history of running on soft or even good turf, that is not his best surface. He likes to hear his hooves rattle under him.

"He is going to struggle on this turf course, despite the fact that there’s not a lot of pace coming up in that race.”

Shutty isn't discounting heavy favorite Enable's chances to win the Breeders' Cup Turf.

“If you look at her record, though, she runs on good, soft, boys, girls, it doesn’t matter,” Shutty said. “She’s just really a super horse allegedly coming into this very nicely. She’s lightly raced, so she’ll be fine on this kind of soft turf.”
Shutty touches on other contenders in the video above. His Super Screener includes full-field analysis for all 14 Breeders’ Cup races with suggested wagers. Get the handicapping advantage today!

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