Track Trends: Winning favorites dip significantly

Reading into last week’s track trends, things looked fairly grim from a betting perspective for those who like to play against favorites, as the percentage of winning chalk soared to new heights in 2022.

This week, it was chalk bettors who took it more on the chin as the percentage of winning favorites for the week ended March 6 dipped to 29 percent – a huge decrease from the 43 percent the last full week of February. There were more opportunities as well, with 803 races during the week and average field size holding steady at 7.5-per-race.

Only two surfaces saw favorites win more than half the time: 62.5 percent favorites on the Turf Paradise lawn and 58.3 percent favorites on the main track at Penn National.

This number is down from six surfaces above 50 percent the previous week. Ten surfaces saw favorites winning less than 25 percent, up from only two the previous week. This week inspired more hope in value possibilities.

Grass racing did see an increase in winning favorites to 37.9 percent from 33 percent last week on 36 more races. From week to week, field size average did remain the greatest on the lawn, though the variety in betting options may have helped suppress the favorites winning percentage.