Track Trends: Winning favorites reach highest percentage yet

As the second month of 2022 comes to a close, the rate of winning favorites soared to new heights. For the week ended Feb. 27, chalk came through at a 43 percent clip, the highest percentage for a week this year. With a day remaining in February, the overall 2022 favorite winning percentage of 38.07 percent was second highest since 2013, just missing the 38.67 percent rate of 2019. Last year’s 35.50 percent rate was the lowest of the last 10 years. Last week’s high rate of winning favorites came despite the most races of the year: 617 Feb. 21-27 versus 547 Feb. 14-20. With more races, there was a decrease in average field size, 7.4 last week versus 7.6 the previous week. Several tracks saw favorites winning half the time or more. Even Oaklawn Park, where Un Ojo won the Rebel Stakes on Saturday at 75-1, experienced a favorite strike rate of 49 percent. Tracks above 50 percent included Santa Anita (downhill turf and dirt), Gulfstream Park (dirt and synthetic), Fair Grounds (dirt) and Turf Paradise (dirt). Un Ojo became only the 17th winner since 1991 to pay at least $152 to win in a graded stakes. The last one to do so was Hollywood Talent in the Turf Monster Stakes (G3) on Sept. 25, 2021, at Parx. Subsequently he was disqualified for a drug positive. It’s been more than eight years since a horse paid at least $162 in a graded stakes, with Ive Struck a Nerve (135.2-1) the last to do so in the 2013 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course. Once again, Santa Anita had the lowest average field size on the dirt and the highest rate of winning favorites at 62 percent. Small field size has become a normality at the Great Race Place, possibly because of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s continued dominance. The downhill turf course had previously offered decent long-shot winners, but that changed this week as favorites won both races run here. Bettors searching for value last week had to turn to the turf, not only at Santa Anita but across the country, as favorites won 33 percent of the time on the grass. Perhaps this correlates to the larger average field sizes compared with the other two surfaces. Turf racing at Tampa Bay Downs and Fair Grounds provided the most opportunity, where the chalk won 27 percent of the time on both courses.