Will Justify win the Triple Crown? Experts weigh in
It's the big question on the minds of the horse racing world: Will Justify succeed in becoming America's 13th Triple Crown winner, following closely in the footsteps of fellow Bob Baffert trainee American Pharoah?
We'll find out in the 2018 Belmont Stakes run June 9, with Justify having already taken the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. With the prospective field forming, we asked our experts what they anticipate in the Triple Crown series' final leg:
Bryan Brinkmeyer, The Kentucky Derby Post (@thederbypost.com)
I think Justify will win the Triple Crown because…he is just a superior horse. He has been challenged by some very talented 3-year-olds and defeated them all with such ease. Justify will handle the distance, will be fresh and ready dominate the Belmont Stakes field en route to a fascinating Triple Crown sweep.
Confidence level: 9.5/10
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
I think Justify won't win the Triple Crown because…six races in four months will take a toll on him. Since his debut, Justify will after the Belmont have competed at distances of seven to 12 furlongs in a 100-day span. His Preakness win was gutty and determined, but had that race not represented a slight cutback in distance from the Derby, Bravazo may have won it. Justify will now face his toughest test, and against fresher horses. I will root for Justify and hope he proves me wrong, but look for an upset in the Belmont Stakes.
Confidence level: 8/10
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
I think Justify will win the Triple Crown because...he won't have to change his running style one iota. All his challengers will have to alter their strategy, which could prove a demanding and disappointing task to those that attempt it. Justify has shown he can run fast early and still have something left at the end. He will receive another first-rate journey near the front end, settling into a relaxed rhythm before displaying the late surge of power he possesses to separate himself from his pursuers. Of course, he will need racing luck. But remember: The best horses usually have the best luck.
Confidence level: 9/10
Chip Gehrke, On the Air with Dr. Derby (@doctorderby)
I think Justify won't win the Triple Crown because...while Justify has accomplished some extraordinary things, the lack of foundation as a 2-year-old, what will be his sixth race in 110 days, and the 12 furlongs of the Belmont Stakes will be his undoing. I also can’t ignore the fact that he has regressed in his last two starts, allowing others in his class to catch up. The Triple Crown isn’t easy to win. I think many forget that. Justify and those who follow him will remind us of that.
Confidence level: 3/10
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
I think Justify will win the Triple Crown because…he has the perfect running style for the race. So far, the horses committed to running are closers, and they characteristically don’t win the Belmont despite its 1 1/2-mile length. I think Justify has had a daunting task ahead of him, but will win the Triple Crown on the lead.
Confidence level: 6/10
Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper's Corner (@Cappercorner)
I think Justify will win the Triple Crown because…he has run hard every step of the way in the first legs of the Triple Crown and doesn’t seem ready to slow down now. When looking at the horses projected to enter the Belmont, it looks as if Justify should have everything his own way early on. My only concern is that he has done so much in such a short amount of time, but he handles anything thrown at him, whether it be dueling through quick early paces, wet tracks, 10 furlongs or lacking 2-year-old foundation. So why should the Belmont — with a more favorable trip — be any different?
Confidence level: 9/10
Olivia Newman, @barbaroloverrr, The Final Stride
I think Justify will win the Triple Crown because…he has overcame every challenge meant to stop him. The Apollo Curse and the mud couldn’t stop this big red powerhouse. He looks to have an advantage in the Belmont, being the lone speed of the race. Every other probable at this point is a closing type. They will not get the hot pace they need, and the Belmont is rarely a closer’s race anyway. Justify should have control of the race.
Confidence level: 9/10
Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)
I believe Justify will win the Triple Crown because…he has proven to be the best of this talented 3-year old crop. His performance in the Preakness was not as visually impressive as his Kentucky Derby, but he got into a speed duel with Good Magic and had to out-run an onslaught of closers. The extra time off before the Belmont will help, and we know Bob Baffert will have him primed to win the Triple Crown.
Confidence level: 7/10
Kate Richards, Racing Hearts
Justify will win the Triple Crown because...Mike Smith compared Justify to Easy Goer in an earlier interview -- big horse with a big stride and the ability to relax on Belmont Park's long turns. My second point is Justify's physical makeup. He appears to have the so-called "X-factor" with a well-developed pulmonary apparatus. Finally, Team Baffert has been here before, with assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes overseeing the colt at Churchill Downs. Should he stay out of trouble, Justify follows American Pharoah.
Confidence level: 8/10
Matt Shifman, NY State of Racing (@andyscoggin)
I think Justify won’t win the Triple Crown because…history is not on his side. When you look at the list of horses that failed in their try in the years between Affirmed and American Pharoah, you are reminded that the Triple Crown is a daunting task. Justify will have run six races in fewer than four months while facing fresh horses in the Belmont Stakes. However, I will not be surprised if he succeeds.
Confidence level: 5/10
Konrad Weeber, Saratoga Scenes
I think Justify won’t win the Triple Crown because…of one major reason: energy. Justify was slowing down at the wire of the Preakness Stakes, appearing tired as other horses were making their runs. To run two of the Triple Crown races in the slop uses up a horse, which is why I favor a contender that has skipped the Preakness and comes out of the gate at Belmont well rested. For that reason my current top picks are Hofburg and Vino Rosso, both of whom were able to freshen up since the Derby.
Confidence level: 8/10
Brian Zipse, Zipse at the Track, @Zipseatthetrack
I think Justify won't win the Triple Crown because… more than anything, I believe his best distance is far short of the 12 furlongs which he will find in the Belmont. While I would like to see another Triple Crown winner, and I have a great respect for this colt's talent, I believe we saw a horse beginning to fatigue late in the Preakness. With a target on his back, I don't see him getting an easy lead in the Belmont, which will open the door for fresh closers like Vino Rosso and Hofburg to pick up the pieces. I believe Justify will run a good race, but his tough campaign and the final furlong will be his undoing.
Confidence Level 7/10