Why rain helps Triple Crown hopeful Justify in Belmont 2018
AccuWeather meteorologist Dean DeVore expects a “sharp edge” to a storm system Saturday in New York, with Belmont Park sitting right on the northern edge. It’s possible, too, that showers arrive after post time — 6:46 p.m. ET — for the 2018 Belmont Stakes.
Whether the track receives a deluge enough to turn the surface sloppy could play a part in Justify’s run at a Triple Crown sweep. And that’s not just because he also won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in such conditions.
Jerry Bailey, a former Hall of Fame jockey who now analyzes major races for NBC Sports, said the particular makeup of Belmont’s dirt — it’s nicknamed “Big Sandy” for a reason — could play to Justify’s favor if it’s wet.
“When water gets over sand, it has a tendency to compact, making it a little faster track, which would make it a little less demanding,” Bailey said. “For a horse like Justify who is trying to do this three races in five weeks, the less demanding the track, the better.
“So I think it would actually probably help the favorite.”
AccuWeather pins rain changes during the day at 57 percent. The National Weather Service is at 50 percent. And The Weather Channel offers the most hope for a clear Belmont Stakes, dropping its chance of showers to just 20 percent now two days out from the race.
Trainer Bob Baffert's son, Bode, will be a resource for Justify's connections. He's an aspiring meteorologist who told his dad it looks like rain for Saturday, and for the most part, "He's sticking with it," Baffert said Thursday. "...Today, he says he needs to work on it."
Handicapper Randy Moss, who will also anchor NBC’s televised coverage of the Belmont Stakes, said ran “takes the wildcard out of the equation” given you know Justify will relish it. Bravazo and Tenfold, who finished just behind him in the Preakness, fall into the same category.
Hofburg ran on late in the Kentucky Derby despite a rough trip to finish seventh. The slop shouldn’t deter him. But, added Moss, “In the Derby, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy didn’t appear to handle it as well. So looking at past performances is all we have to go on. That seems to be what we would look for if it does come up wet again on Saturday.”
There's at least one guy who wouldn't mind a third sloppy track in the Triple Crown series. NBC race caller Larry Collmus has already called 20 horses in the mud at Churchill Downs, then dealt with blinding fog three weeks ago at Pimlico. It's a sunny afternoon at Belmont that makes his job difficult.
"I’d prefer rain to sun because of the conditions at Belmont Park when they turn for home with the horses at the top of the stretch, the sun sets right behind them, and it changes the silk colors of the horses and makes it a little more difficult for me," Collmus said. "So a little rain is OK. Although I think just clouds would be fine so we have a crowd that doesn’t get wet and maybe enjoys another piece of history."