Why is Derby so difficult for BC Juvenile winners? Trainers differ

You might be aware that only two winners of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in its 37-year history have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby – Street Sense and Nyquist.

But you might surprised that only three other Juvenile winners have even finished in the money in the Derby: Good Magic (second, 2017), Timber Country (third, 1994) and Chief's Crown (Third, 1984).

"I don't feel like the Breeders' Cup is so hard on them that they can't win the Kentucky Derby," said Mark Casse, who trained 2016 Juvenile winner Classic Empire. "I think it's just a matter of being able to be lucky twice. There's only one Breeders Cup winner every year. And then there's just so many obstacles that can happen."

[RELATED: Keys to handicapping the 2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile]

And those obstacles could be in the path of the top choices for the Juvenile in the latest futures from Bovada: Jack Christopher at 2-1 and Corniche at 7-2.

Last year's Juvenile champion, Essential Quality, finished fourth in the Derby (pending a decision on Medina Spirit). Of course, he went on to win all five of his other starts, including the Belmont Stakes and the Travers (G1).

Of the 37 Juvenile winners, 16 did not start in the Derby. Here is how the winners have fared in the Derby since the 2010 Juvenile:

2019, Storm the Court – 6th in 2020 Kentucky Derby

2018, Game Winner – 5th (promoted from 6th)

2017, Good Magic – 2nd

2016, Classic Empire – 4th

2015, Nyquist – 1st

2014, Texas Red – Did not start (injury)

2013, New Year's Day – Did not start (injury)

2012, Shanghai Bobby – Did not start (injury)

2011, Hansen – 9th

2010, Uncle Mo – Did not start (scratched day before the Derby)

From another perspective, four Kentucky Derby winners started in the Juvenile but did not win it: Spend A Buck (third in the Juvenile), Alysheba (third), Sea Hero (seventh) and Mine that Bird (12th).

Casse's Classic Empire was a Pioneerof the Nile colt who won four of his first five starts, including the Juvenile. (He unseated his rider in one of those five, the G1 Hopeful.) He also won the Arkansas Derby (G1) before finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby.

"My thought has been and always will be that Classic Empire probably should have won the Kentucky Derby. He got wiped out in the first 100 yards. And he did something nobody else did, and that was to rally from, like, from nowhere. …

"It was a little more difficult with him, because he, you know, he gave us some obstacles along the way – his behavior did. He was a pistol. He wouldn't train in the winter time. We couldn't get him to go around the track at Palm Meadows."

Casse does not believe that the reason many Breeders' Cup winners fizzle in the Derby is that they are precocious as 2-year-olds.

"It's just difficult – it would be difficult if you had a $30,000 claimer that won in November and then have him win another $30,000 claiming race in May. It's just the nature of the beast. There's so many factors that can play into any win or loss."

Peter Eurton, trainer of Storm the Court, has a different opinion. The son of Court Vision won the Juvenile in 2019 and has not had a victory in 10 starts since.

"I just think at the age of 2, there's so many horses that haven't even got a chance to see what's going on yet," he said. "So it's difficult to get a 2-year-old with that experience that early without going through a lot of growing fits. So I just don't think you see the best that there is by any means. It's too difficult to be ready at that point, and they're such a young age. So that's my opinion. I just think there's so many other good horses that you haven't seen yet. And not the best horse is around yet."

In a bit of irony, Storm the Court was the youngest contender in the Juvenile. "We won it with a horse that was born in May, for goodness sake. Storm the Court matured at such a young age, and he just happened to be good at that time. I think there was a lot of good horses at that time, but I think there probably were better ones hadn't quite matured yet."

Euroton also provided an update on Storm the Court, who last raced in March and stopped training in June.

"He's in training now, he just came in. So he'll probably get his first work sometime in December and be ready sometime in early February, late January, something like that, in a perfect world."