Who's fastest? Comparing Derby contenders' speed figures

Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

Speed figures, of course, only show how fast horses have run — not how fast they could run. But Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures, along with Brisnet Speed Ratings, can give us an idea of who belongs near the top of your 2018 Kentucky Derby wagers.

For instance, Classic Empire and Always Dreaming sported some of the top figures heading into last year’s race at Churchill Downs. But Classic Empire posted his number as a juvenile. Always Dreaming peaked at the right time and won.

“I look at them,” said Mike Battaglia, who has set the Derby’s morning line more than 40 years, on figures. “I try to find a horse that has a little worse Beyer — that’s probably better than what the Beyer says.”

No matter how you use them, consider speed figures part of the equation. Here, we’ve listed the last three numbers from each source to help with your handicapping.


Beyer Speed Figures
 
 Horse Last Start Two Back Three Back
 Magnum Moon 98 97 88
 Good Magic 95 89 100
 Audible 99 99 84
 Noble Indy 95 91 84
 Vino Rosso 98 85 90
 Bolt d'Oro 102 101 91
 Enticed 93 95 76
 Mendelssohn 106* N/A N/A
 Justify 107 101 104
 Flamaway 92 94 68
 Solomini 92 92 93
 Bravazo 64 93 89
 My Boy Jack 90 94 93
 Promises Fulfilled 47 96 76
 Free Drop Billy 89 83 90
 Lone Sailor 95 78 72
 Hofburg 94 83 60
 Firenze Fire 81 79 83
 Combatant 92 92 85
 Instilled Regard 90 91 92
                       *Special figure assigned for UAE Derby
 
Brisnet Speed Ratings
 
 Horse Last Start Two Back Three Back
 Magnum Moon 99 100 90
 Good Magic 98 98 105
 Audible 107 105 94
 Noble Indy 100 96 95
 Vino Rosso 102 91 100
 Bolt d'Oro 110 98 99
 Enticed 99 104 88
 Mendelssohn N/A N/A N/A
 Justify 114 104 100
 Flamaway 97 97 101
 Solomini 95 96 101
 Bravazo 76 98 96
 My Boy Jack 94 99 98
 Promises Fulfilled 67 104 90
 Free Drop Billy 67 104 90
 Lone Sailor 100 83 81
 Hofburg 104 96 79
 Firenze Fire 90 93 92
 Combatant 94 95 92
 Instilled Regard 102 95 96

TimeformUS Speed Figures

 

 Horse Last Start Two Back Three Back
 Magnum Moon 114 116 106
 Good Magic 121 113 116
 Audible 120 114 102
 Noble Indy 116 106 103
 Vino Rosso 120 104 112
 Bolt d'Oro 128 122 110
 Enticed 119 115 100
 Mendelssohn 120 114 108
 Justify 131 122 129
 Flamaway 120 111 115
 Solomini 108 113 118
 Bravazo 94 110 104
 My Boy Jack 114 112 114
 Promises Fulfilled 91 116 103
 Free Drop Billy 115 107 111
 Lone Sailor 113 96 100
 Hofburg 116 104 86
 Firenze Fire 107 104 109
 Combatant 108 111 107
 Instilled Regard 119 109 113

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