Baby Yoda vs. Flightline: Who's really faster?

The Flightline-Baby Yoda rivalry that has played out in my mind the past four months is more allegory than actual. The two are on a collision course to face each other for the first time in their careers on Sunday in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on opening day at Santa Anita Park, but my fascination with these two horses has more to do with calculations than expectations.

Both 3-year-olds raced in entry-level allowance races on Labor Day weekend. Baby Yoda went 6 1/2 furlongs on Sept. 4 at Saratoga and won by 4 1/4 lengths. Flightline went 6 furlongs the next day at Del Mar Race Course and won by 12 lengths.

Both were impressive, no doubt, but only the Beyer Speed Figure said they were equally impressive, as TimeformUS, Brisnet and Ragozin all had Flightline as faster.

This fascinated me greatly because I thought Flightline was breathtaking. I fully expected his “numbers” to come quicker than Baby Yoda’s and was surprised when Beyer had them as equal.

Of course, the Malibu Stakes will in no way be a moratorium on the accuracy of the Labor Day weekend figures. We can use such data to help predict future events, but speed ratings, performance figures and what-have-yous are nothing more than an assessment of what happened in that race.

Still, does Beyer really think Baby Yoda ran as fast as Flightline did that weekend? Does it matter?

Another wrinkle to this is that Flightline has not raced since that effort 16 weeks ago, and that was his only start in a 7-month span since his career debut. Baby Yoda’s breakthrough race came in his fourth career start, and he is 0-for-2 since, losing by a combined 12 lengths at odds of 3-2 and 7-10.

So that’s the academics of a rivalry that exists only in my mind – especially since I don’t expect it to be much of one when they meet on the racetrack. Flightline is 4-5 on the morning line and is value at that price to win. I expect more like 2-5, and if I play at all it will only be as a single in multi-race wagers.