Who's Hot Under The Sun Part 5
In this, the final episode of “Who’s Hot Under The Sun”, we’ll change the format of “Who’s Hot/Who’s Not” by listing the jockeys by distance. This might give you an easier time of who to look at in certain race scenarios. This could be a good prelude to handicapping the Florida Derby day.
As Gulfstream Park is nearing the conclusion of their 2014 meet, I want to thank those of you who may have read my number-crunching. It has been enjoyable, and I hope that you may have benefitted, in some small way, from deciphering the end-product.
But first, we’ll list the jockey standings(or the Javier Castellano show):
|
NO |
1 |
2 |
3 |
W% |
BR PT PCT |
TRACK VARIANCE |
P% |
BR PT PCT |
TRACK VARIANCE | |
|
CASTELLANO |
272 |
82 |
51 |
31 |
30.1% |
30.6% |
17.848 |
48.9% |
53.7% |
24.298 |
|
VELAZQUEZ |
75 |
16 |
10 |
11 |
21.3% |
18.9% |
9.982 |
34.7% |
40.4% |
11.965 |
|
SAEZ L |
273 |
51 |
42 |
24 |
18.7% |
17.0% |
6.682 |
34.1% |
31.2% |
10.068 |
|
LEZCANO |
160 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
15.6% |
21.3% |
4.094 |
30.6% |
35.8% |
7.562 |
|
ROSARIO |
249 |
40 |
49 |
33 |
16.1% |
18.7% |
4.035 |
35.7% |
42.6% |
11.684 |
|
LOPEZ P |
279 |
43 |
31 |
39 |
15.4% |
16.1% |
3.235 |
26.5% |
34.1% |
2.168 |
|
LEPAROUX |
156 |
22 |
17 |
24 |
14.1% |
17.3% |
2.446 |
25.0% |
35.3% |
1.688 |
|
PRADO |
107 |
14 |
11 |
15 |
13.1% |
12.8% |
1.629 |
23.4% |
31.1% |
0.455 |
|
ZAYAS |
121 |
15 |
13 |
18 |
12.4% |
18.4% |
0.210 |
23.1% |
34.1% |
2.072 |
|
ROCCO |
178 |
19 |
24 |
23 |
10.7% |
16.0% |
1.076 |
24.2% |
30.6% |
0.657 |
|
BRAVO |
149 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
10.1% |
17.1% |
1.344 |
21.5% |
35.5% |
1.345 |
|
DAVIS |
228 |
25 |
28 |
31 |
11.0% |
24.3% |
1.348 |
23.2% |
42.5% |
1.381 |
|
LANERIE |
173 |
18 |
21 |
22 |
10.4% |
22.2% |
1.415 |
22.5% |
27.1% |
1.096 |
|
TRUJILLO |
122 |
12 |
12 |
17 |
9.8% |
8.8% |
2.120 |
19.7% |
19.2% |
4.240 |
|
JAEN |
191 |
15 |
20 |
12 |
7.9% |
11.1% |
4.337 |
18.3% |
19.7% |
6.055 |
For a better understanding of the terminologies, and the purpose for these headings. W% is self-explanatory. It will be the wins divided by number of races. There sometimes would be a difference between the W% as you know it, and what it actually is. If the jockey is part of an entry, and the other half of the entry wins, the jockey will get credit for the win in the W%, but it won’t be reflected in number of wins. The Break Point Pct. Is the average payoff translated into a comparable percentage to the W%. If the W% is greater than the Break Point Pct., the jockey would realize a profit. Lastly, Track Variance is utilized to evaluate a jockey based on the size of the fields he/she wins in(i.e. extreme example: if two jocks are at 20%, they are initially regarded as equal. But, if one jockey won in a two-horse race, and the other won in a 20-horse race, their numbers would be 50.000 and 95.000 after that race). Track Variance is a good gauge for determining the success of the jockey.
WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT
For the most part, these numbers are based on what the jockey has accomplished, with no regard to the horse(s) he/she is riding. If you’re in a situation where you’re playing multiple horse exotics, you might regard one of these jockey trends. Criteria for making the grade: At least 3 wins, a Win Track Variance of at least 14.000, and the W% - 5, is equal to, or greater than the Win Break Pct.; five 1st or 2nd’s, a Place Track Variance of at least 16.000, and the P% - 4, is equal to, or greater than the Place Break Pct; or Six 1st 2nd, or 3rd’s, a Show Track Variance of at least 17.000, and the S% -3, is equal to, or greater than the Show Break Pct.. For the bad side, at least 25 races, with a Win Track Variance of at least 5.000.
SPRINT
Dirt races up to 6 ½ furlongs
LUIS SAEZ – P.P. 1(W; 3-for-6); P.P. 3(W; 3-for-6); P.P. 4(W; 4-for-11); P.P. 6(W; 3-for-10).
JOHN VELAZQUEZ – ALL(WPS; 10-3-3-1)
PACO LOPEZ – P.P. 4(P; 5-for-8); P.P.’s 5-6(W; 8-for-21).
JOEL ROSARIO – P.P. 5(S; 7-for-9).
DYLAN DAVIS – P.P. 1(W; 4-for-11); P.P. 3(S; 7-for-9); P.P.’s 5-12(1-for-34).
COREY LANERIE – P.P.’s 3-12(1-for-30).
ABDIEL JAEN – ALL(1-for-45).
EDGAR PRADO – P.P.’s 4-5(W; 3-for-9).
MIDDLE
Dirt races 7 furlongs to 1 mile
JAVIER CASTELLANO – P.P. 3(WPS; 8-4-1-2); P.P. 5(W; 5-for-8).
LUIS SAEZ – P.P. 2(W; 4-for-8); P.P. 5(WPS; 7-3-2-1); ALL(W; 15-for-48).
PACO LOPEZ – P.P.’s 2-5(1-for-33).
JOEL ROSARIO – P.P.’s 2-8(2-for-29).
JOSEPH ROCCO – P.P. 2(W; 3-for-4).
DYLAN DAVIS – P.P. 5(P; 5-for-8).
ROUTE
Dirt races beyond 1 mile
JAVIER CASTELLANO – P.P. 2(WP; 5-4-1-0); ALL(WP; 26-11-6-1).
FAST
Dirt races
JAVIER CASTELLANO – P.P. 4(PS; 9-2-3-2); P.P. 5(W; 7-for-13).
JOHN VELAZQUEZ – P.P. 4(W; 3-for-4).
LUIS SAEZ – P.P. 2(P; 7-for-15); P.P. 3(WS; 9-4-0-3); P.P. 4(W; 7-for-16); P.P. 5(PS; 13-3-3-1); P.P. 8(WPS; 9-3-3-1).
PACO LOPEZ – P.P.’s 2-3(1-for-31).
JOEL ROSARIO – P.P. 3(P; 5-for-11); P.P. 4(S; 10-for-15); P.P. 6(W; 3-for-8).
EDGARD ZAYAS – P.P. 4(P; 5-for-11).
JOE BRAVO – P.P. 1(W; 3-for-7); P.P.’s 4-12(1-for-26).
COREY LANERIE – P.P. 2(W; 4-for-9); P.P.’s 5-8(1-for-30).
OFF
JAVIER CASTELLANO – P.P. 3(W; 3-for-4); ALL(WP; 23-11-5-1).
EDGARD ZAYAS – P.P.’s 1-2(W; 3-for-8).
DYLAN DAVIS – ALL(2-for-25).
JOSEPH ROCCO – P.P. 2(W; 3-for-4); ALL(WP; 21-7-3-5).
TURF SPRINT
Turf races below a mile
JAVIER CASTELLANO – P.P. 5(W; 3-for-10); P.P. 6(W; 4-for-8).
PACO LOPEZ – P.P. 2(W; 3-for-5).
JOSE LEZCANO – ALL(1-for-28).
EDGAR PRADO – ALL(P; 6-for-16).
DYLAN DAVIS – ALL(2-for-35).
JOSEPH ROCCO – ALL(1-for-29)
TURF DISTANCE
Turf races a mile or longer
JAVIER CASTELLANO – P.P. 2(PS; 10-2-4-1); P.P. 4(W; 4-for-14); P.P. 9(WP; 8-4-1-0); P.P. 10(WP; 9-5-0-0).
JOHN VELAZQUEZ – ALL(S; 17-for-30)
LUIS SAEZ – P.P. 1(PS; 9-2-4-0); P.P. 8(W; 3-for-12); P.P.’s 3-6(0-for-39).
PACO LOPEZ – P.P. 2(W; 3-for-7); P.P. 3(S; 6-for-11).
JOSE LEZCANO – P.P. 2(S; 6-for-7); P.P. 3(PS; 6-2-3-1); P.P. 6(W; 3-for-7).
JOEL ROSARIO – P.P. 1(PS; 14-3-5-2); P.P.’s 2-4(2-for-30); P.P. 5(S; 6-for-11); P.P. 9(WS; 9-4-0-2).
JULIEN LEPAROUX – P.P. 7(W; 3-for-7).
EDGAR PRADO – P.P.’s 5-13(1-for-30).
DYLAN DAVIS – P.P. 1(WS; 8-3-1-2); P.P.’s 7-12(1-for-25).
ELVIS TRUJILLO – P.P. 3(S; 6-for-8); P.P.’s 3-12(1-for-30).
JOSEPH ROCCO – P.P.’s 1-6(1-for-50).
COREY LANERIE – P.P.’s 6-12(1-for-25).
ABDIEL JAEN – ALL(0-for-58).
TOTAL TURF
JAVIER CASTELLANO – P.P. 4(W; 6-for-19J); P.P. 9(WP; 12-4-2-1); P.P. 10(WP; 11-6-0-1).
JOHN VELAZQUEZ – P.P. 1(W; 3-for-5).
LUIS SAEZ – P.P. 1(P; 7-for-14); P.P. 2(WP; 8-3-2-0); P.P.’s 3-6(3-for-54); P.P. 9(PS; 9-1-4-1).
PACO LOPEZ – P.P. 1(PS; 10-1-5-0); P.P. 2(WPS; 12-6-1-2); P.P. 9(PS; 12-1-4-2).
JOSE LEZCANO – P.P. 1(S; 8-for-12); P.P.’s 2-3(PS; 10-for-18 and S; 14-for-18); P.P. 6(W; 3-for-11).
JOEL ROSARIO – P.P. 7(S; 9-for-16); P.P. 9(WS; 14-6-0-3).
JULIEN LEPAROUX – P.P. 7(WP; 13-4-1-1).
EDGARD ZAYAS – P.P.’s 1-6(1-for-32).
DYLAN DAVIS – P.P. 1(W; 3-for-11); P.P.’s 2-5(1-for-34); P.P.’s 7-12(2-for-39).
ELVIS TRUJILLO – P.P. 3(S; 8-for-12); P.P.’s 6-12(1-for-26).
JOSEPH ROCCO – P.P.’s 1-6(2-for-70).
COREY LANERIE – ALL(2-for-72).
ABDIEL JAEN – P.P.’s 1-5(2-for-50).
ALL
JAVIER CASTELLANO – P.P. 4(WP; 32-10-5-5); P.P. 5(W; 13-for-34); P.P. 10(WP; 11-6-0-1).
JOHN VELAZQUEZ – P.P. 2(P; 5-for-12); P.P. 4(W; 3-for-8).
LUIS SAEZ – P.P. 1(S; 15-for-26); P.P. 2(P; 13-for-26); P.P. 3(W; 7-for-24); P.P. 8(PS; 26-6-6-2); P.P. 9(P; 5-for-13).
PACO LOPEZ – P.P. 1(P; 11-for-25); P.P. 2(S; 17-for-28); P.P. 3(3-for-40); P.P. 9(PS; 17-1-6-2); P.P.’s 9-10(1-for-26).
JOSE LEZCANO – P.P. 1(S; 11-for-17); P.P. 2(PS; 19-4-5-3).
JOEL ROSARIO – P.P. 4(2-for-32); P.P. 6(WPS; 16-5-4-2); P.P. 7(P; 12-for-28); P.P. 9(WS; 15-7-0-3).
JULIEN LEPAROUX – P.P. 1(1-for-24); P.P. 2(W; 3-for-11); P.P.’s 5-6(2-for-36); P.P. 7(WP; 16-4-3-1).
EDGARD ZAYAS – P.P.’s 5-6(1-for-29); P.P. 7(W; 3-for-9).
JOE BRAVO – P.P.’s 6-12(3-for-69).
EDGAR PRADO – P.P. 2(S; 11-for-18); P.P. 4(W; 3-for-11).
DYLAN DAVIS – P.P.’s 7-12(3-for-66).
ELVIS TRUJILLO – P.P. 1(W; 3-for-9); P.P. 3(S; 14-for-22); P.P.’s 5-6(1-for-29).
JOSEPH ROCCO – P.P. 1(2-for-27); P.P. 2(W; 6-for-23); P.P. 4(S; 11-for-16); P.P’s 5-6(1-for-38).
COREY LANERIE – P.P.’s 6-12(1-for-36).
ABDIEL JAEN – P.P. 1(1-for-25); P.P. 3(1-for-25).
Finally, I would like to thank HRN, for allowing me the opportunity to do something that I thoroughly enjoy. To the Nation, I hope that all your endeavors are profitable, at the track, and in life.
~Written by Brian Bradley