Who's Hot Under The Sun Part 4

In edition #4, we will look at the jockeys’ success over FAST tracks versus OFF tracks, to see if any jockeys excel in the off-going, when they have to multi-task(flip their goggles, yet keep their focus on the navigation of their horse).  Also, we will display the best times for Gulfstream in 2014.

Briefly summarizing the doings of last week at Gulfstream, Normandy Invasion made a successful return to the races, by recording a mile-best time for this meet.  He had disappeared after a respectable fourth in last year’s Kentucky Derby.  Good to see the Chad Brown charge return with such a flourish.  He should be a contender down the road for the older horse division.

But first, let us show the current jockey standings for the 2014 Gulfstream meet(from January 1 through Wednesday, February 26).  They will be listed in Track Variance order:

For a better understanding of the terminologies, and the purpose for these headings.  W% is self-explanatory.  It will be the wins divided by number of races.  There sometimes would be a difference between the W% as you know it, and what it actually is.  If the jockey is part of an entry, and the other half of the entry wins, the jockey will get credit for the win in the W%, but it won’t be reflected in number of wins.  The Break Point Pct. Is the average payoff translated into a comparable percentage to the W%.  If the W% is greater than the Break Point Pct., the jockey would realize a profit.  Lastly, Track Variance is utilized to evaluate a jockey based on the size of the fields he/she wins in(i.e. extreme example: if two jocks are at 20%, they are initially regarded as equal.  But, if one jockey won in a two-horse race, and the other won in a 20-horse race, their numbers would be 50.000 and 95.000 after that race).  Track Variance is a good gauge for determining the success of the jockey.

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

For the most part, these numbers are based on what the jockey has accomplished, with no regard to the horse(s) he/she is riding.  If you’re in a situation where you’re playing multiple horse exotics, you might regard one of these jockey trends.  Criteria for making the grade:  At least 3 wins, a Win Track Variance of at least 14.000, and the W% - 5, is equal to, or greater than the Win Break Pct.; five 1^st or 2^nd’s, a Place Track Variance of at least 16.000, and the P% - 4, is equal to, or greater than the Place Break Pct; or Six 1^st 2^nd, or 3^rd’s, a Show Track Variance of at least 17.000, and the S% -3, is equal to, or greater than the Show Break Pct..  For the bad side, at least 23 races, with a Win Track Variance of at least 5.000.

HOT

W=Win                 P=Place                                S=Show                                Sprint=Dirt races up to 6 ½ furlongs

Middle=Dirt races 7 furlongs to a mile                     Route=Dirt races beyond a mile

Turf Sprint-Turf races below a mile                          Turf Distance=Turf races mile or longer

JAVIER CASTELLANO – Javier is running away from the rest of the jockey colony, clearly making himself the kingpin of Gulfstream.  Because of his success, his popularity amongst the betting throng makes him a difficult choice to show where he would be a clear cut selection.  Still, there are some areas where he still excels, and shows a profit.   Middle, P.P. 3(W, P, S; 7-4-1-1) and P.P. 5(W; 4-for-5) are profitable .  Route, Off(W, P; 7-5-1-0);  Fast track, P.P. 2(S; 9-for-11) and P.P. 5(5-for-9);  Off track(W, P; 20-11-3-1) also show net worthy gains.  Turf Sprints, P.P. 5-7(W; 7-for-17) and Turf Distance, P.P.’s 4, 9, and 10(W; 13-for-29) also.  Lastly, P.P.’s 4-5 overall, will gain you a Win profit(20-for-55).

JOHN VELASQUEZ – Although John is one of the top jockeys in the country, he has only recently returned to the track, after a recent hospitalization.  His numbers have not accumulated much data thus far, but we will provide what info that he has mustered.  Turf Distance has provided a return profit on Show investments(13-for-23).  His only other profit would be of the Place variety when he is breaking from P.P. 2(5-for-10).

LUIS SAEZ – Luis is an up-and-coming jockey that might be coming of age.  Areas where he is hot are:  Sprint, Fast, P.P. 4(W; 3-for-9); Sprint, P.P. 1(3-for-6); Middle, Off, P.P.’s 2-5(W; 4-for-6); Middle, P.P. 5(WPS; 7-3-2-1); Middle(W; 13-for-42); Turf Distance, P.P. 1(P, S; 9-2-4-0); Turf Distance, P.P. 8(W; 3-for-11); Turf, P.P. 2(W, P; 7-3-2-0); Overall, P.P. 1(Show; 15-for-25); P.P. 2(P, S; 22-5-6-2); and, P.P. 8(P, S; 25-6-6-2).

PACO LOPEZ – Sprint, P.P. 4(P; 5-for-7); Sprint; P.P’s 5-6(W; 8-for-20); Turf, P.P. 1(P; 5-for-7);  Turf; P.P. 2(WPS; 10-4-1-2); Turf, P.P. 9(S; 6-for-10).

JOSE LEZCANO – Turf Distance, P.P. 6(W; 3-for-7) and Turf Distance, All(S; 34-for-61).

JOEL ROSARIO – Turf, P.P. 7(S; 7-for-14); Turf, P.P. 9(W, S; 12-5-0-3).

JULIEN LEPAROUX – Sprint(P, S; 16-2-6-2); Turf, P.P.’s 7-8(5-for-15).

EDGARD ZAYAS – P.P. 7(W; 3-for-8).

JOE BRAVO – Fast, P.P. 1(W; 3-for-7).

EDGAR PRADO – Turf Sprint(P; 6-for-15); P.P. 2(S; 9-for-15).

DYLAN DAVIS – Overall, P.P. 3(S; 14-for-25); Overall, P.P. 1(W; 8-for-25).

ELVIS TRUJILLO – P.P. 1(W; 3-for-8); P.P. 3(S; 13-for-19).               

JOE ROCCO – Middle, Off(WPS; 9-4-1-1); Off(W, P; 21-7-3-5); P.P. 4(S; 9-for-13).

NOT

JOHN VELASQUEZ – P.P.’S 5-10 are 1-for-24.

LUIS SAEZ – Turf Distance, P.P’s 3-6(0-for-31).

PACO LOPEZ – Middle, P.P.’s 2-5(0-for-24); Overall, P.P.’s 9-10(1-for-23).

JOSE LEZCANO – Turf Sprint(1-for-24).

JOEL ROSARIO – Middle, P.P.’s 2-8(1-for-24); Turf, P.P.’s 4-5(1-for-25).

JULIEN LEPAROUX – Middle, Route(2-for-28); P.P.’s 5-6(1-for-28).

EDGARD ZAYAS – P.P.’s 5-6(1-for-27).

JOE BRAVO – P.P.’s 6-9(2-for-50).

EDGAR PRADO – Turf Distance, P.P.’s 4-13(1-for-30); Turf, P.P.’s 3-5(1-for-23).

DYLAN DAVIS – Sprint, P.P.’s 5-12(1-for-29); Off(2-for-23); Turf Sprint(1-for-27); Turf, P.P. 2-5(1-for-27); Turf, P.P.’s 7-12(1-for-29); Overall, P.P. 5(1-for-25); Overall, P.P.’s 8-12(0-for-30).

ELVIS TRUJILLO – Turf, P.P.’s 3-12(1-for-37); P.P.’s 5-12(1-for-36).

JOE ROCCO – Turf Sprint(1-for-28); Turf, P.P.’s 3-8(1-for-56); P.P.’s 3-6(3-for-69).

COREY LANERIE – Sprint, P.P.’s 3-12(1-for-28); Turf(2-for-66)

FAST vs OFF TRACK SUCCESS

The following will be the standings of the jockeys on Fast dirt tracks versus Off dirt tracks.  This might enlighten you to jockeys that have a knack for upgrading their performances if the track is off.

FAST

OFF

Lastly, we will display the best times at Gulfstream for this year, 2014.

In hopes that all your ventures are good.  Good day to all good sports.

~Written by Brian Bradley