Who's Hot Under The Sun Part 3

In this edition #3, we will take a look at the leading jockey in respective situations sans Route Dirt(due to lack of numbers), showing the analysis of the most successful jockey from inside post on out.  Sometimes you can find an affinity by these jockeys to favor one portion of the track over the other .

Briefly discussing last week’s happenings at Gulfstream, Zatt’s Star Of The Week, Lea, came home in record time in the Donn Handicap.  Another star has emerged on the horizon.

Prior to listing the leading jockeys in respective situations, we’ll show the current standings(from January 1 to Sunday, February 9, and the Who’s Hot/Who’s Not listings.

For a better understanding of the terminologies, and the purpose for these headings.  W% is self-explanatory.  It will be the wins divided by number of races.  There sometimes would be a difference between the W% as you know it, and what it actually is.  If the jockey is part of an entry, and the other half of the entry wins, the jockey will get credit for the win in the W%, but it won’t be reflected in number of wins.  The Break Point Pct. Is the average payoff translated into a comparable percentage to the W%.  If the W% is greater than the Break Point Pct., the jockey would realize a profit.  Lastly, Track Variance is utilized to evaluate a jockey based on the size of the fields he/she wins in(i.e. extreme example: if two jocks are at 20%, they are initially regarded as equal.  But, if one jockey won in a two-horse race, and the other won in a 20-horse race, their numbers would be 50.000 and 95.000 after that race).  Track Variance is a good gauge for determining the success of the jockey.

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

For the most part, these numbers are based on what the jockey has accomplished, with no regard to the horse(s) he/she is riding.  If you’re in a situation where you’re playing multiple horse exotics, you might regard one of these jockey trends.  Criteria for making the grade:  At least 3 wins, a Win Track Variance of at least 14.000, and the W% - 5, is equal to, or greater than the Win Break Pct.; five 1^st or 2^nd’s, a Place Track Variance of at least 16.000, and the P% - 4, is equal to, or greater than the Place Break Pct; or Six 1^st 2^nd, or 3^rd’s, a Show Track Variance of at least 17.000, and the S% -3, is equal to, or greater than the Show Break Pct..  For the bad side, at least 20 races, with a Win Track Variance of at least 5.000.

HOT

W=Win         P=Place        S=Show                          Sprint=Dirt races up to 6 ½ furlongs

Middle=Dirt races 7 furlongs to a mile                     Route=Dirt races beyond a mile

Turf Sprint-Turf races below a mile                          Turf Distance=Turf races mile or longer 

Javier Castellano – Very difficult to win with this crowd favorite, so though he has many wins, he fails to meet my criteria in a lot of situations.  These are areas where he has excelled:  Route, Off(W,P,S; 6-5-1-0); Off track(W,P; 18-10-3-1); Turf, P.P.2(P,S; 8-2-3-1); Turf, P.P.10(W; 4-for-7); Overall, P.P.4(W; 7-for-21); and, Overall, P.P.5(W; 9-for-21).

Jose Lezcano- Give him a look-see when:  Route, Fast(W; 3-for-9); Turf Distance(P,S; 42-9-7-9); Turf(S; 31-for-59); Turf, P.P.2(S; 7-for-7); Turf, P.P.5(S; 6-for-9); Overall, P.P.2(P,S; 13-4-3-3); Overall, P.P.5(P,S; 13-3-4-2).

Luis Saez- Up-and-coming jockey providing good return on the buck.  Thus far, look for him when:  Middle, Off(W; 4-for-10); Fast, P.P.4(W,P; 11-5-1-1); Middle, P.P.5(W; 3-for-6); Middle(W,P; 33-13-3-4); Overall, P.P.2(W,P,S; 15-5-4-1); Overall, P.P.1(P,S; 13-3-3-2); Overall, P.P.8(W,P,S; 23-6-5-2).

Joel Rosario- Jockey that is with the national-ranking jockeys.  At Gulfstream, he’s excelled when:  Fast, P.P.4(S; 6-for-8); Turf Distance, P.P.1(P,S; 12-3-3-2); Turf, P.P.9(W,S; 11-5-0-3); Overall, P.P.6(P,S; 11-2-3-2); Overall, P.P.7(P,S; 20-4-5-3).

Edgard Zayas- Not much to show, either pro or con.  The only qualifier is:  Overall, P.P.2(W; 4-for-14)

Paco Lopez- Has overachieved when:  Off, P.P.’s 5-6(W, 3-for-7); Sprint, P.P.6(W, 4-for-8); Overall, P.P.1(P,S; 12-3-5-0); Overall, P.P.2(S; 9-for-16).

Joe Rocco- Give this guy the once-over when on an Off track.  Areas where he steps up:  Middle, Off(W,P,S; 9-4-1-1); Off, P.P.2(W; 3-for-4); Off(W, 7-for-20); Overall, P.P.7(P; 7-for-14).

Abdiel Jaen- Only love for this guy, would be the Middle(P; 15-for-27).

Dylan Davis- This apprentice jockey(who is the son of Robbie Davis) is having quite a feast-or-famine situation, with Sprint races.  On one hand, he is successful in P.P.’s 1-2(W; 5-for-12).  But, from all other P.P.’s 3-12, it’s quite a different story(1-for-29).  Overall, he’s found success from P.P.1(W; 7-for-19).

Edgar Prado- His only good run of luck, has been Overall, from P.P.2(S; 9-for-13).

Julian Leparoux- When the conditions are Fast, and the distance is Sprint, he is lucrative(P,S; 11-1-6-1).  Disregarding distance, but the conditions are Fast(P; 10-for-23).  Overall, P.P.7 has done well thus far(W-P-S; 12-3-2-1).

Joe Bravo- Another jockey with striking contrasts.  In this case, it involves a Fast track.  P.P.1 has fared well(W; 3-for-7).  Otherwise, the rest of the track, P.P.’s 2-12 is basically ineffective(2-for-28).

Elvis Trujillo- Fortune and fame come his way, when the distance is Sprint, and the conditions are Fast(P,S; 13-3-5-2). Overall, P.P.3 has been sensible for Show bets(9-for-13).

Corey Lanerie- Fortune only smiles on him, when the distance is Sprint, and the conditions are Fast(W; 3-for-5).

NOT

Luis Saez-In Turf Distance races, P.P’s 2-5, he’s wearing the collar in 28 races.

Joes Rosario- Having a tough time with:  Turf Sprint, P.P’s 1-8(1-for-21); Overall, P.P’s 4-5(1-for-40).

Paco Lopez- Bypass when Middle distance, with the exception of P.P.1(1-for-28); Overall, P.P.’s 9-12(0-for-24).

Joe Rocco- Fast, P.P.’s 1-6(1-for-25); Turf, P.P’s 1-8(3-for-62).

Abdiel Jaen- Has had a bad experience with Sprint races(1-for-32).  Turf Distance has also been unkind(0-for-27).

Dylan Davis- Having a horrible time on Turf, P.P’s 2-5(1-21), and P.P.’s 7-11(1-22).  Overall, P.P.’s 4-5(2-for-32) and P.P.’s 8-12(0-for-23) have been nearly fruitless.

Edgar Prado- Has not fared well in Turf Distance races outside P.P. 1(1-for-28).

Julian Leparoux- Races 7 furlongs or longer on dirt, have only yielded one win in 22 attempts.  Despite the fact that he’s been profitable for Place bets on a fast track, the opposite would be said in regards to getting to the Winner’s Circle(1-for-23).  Overall, P.P’s 1-4 is a bad location on the track for Julian(2-for-48).

Joe Bravo- Based on the numbers he’s accomplished thus far, stay away from Turf Sprints(1-for-21), or P.P.’s 6-9 Overall(1-for-40).

Elvis Trujillo- Any Post Position outside of the inside, when it is on Turf, is just a no-go(1-for-23).

Corey Lanerie- He can’t be gaga when the race is on Turf(1-for-49).

As I mentioned earlier, we will now look at the leading jockey in each dirt distance, and turf situation, by post position.  Here is the listing:

Sprint

Dirt races up to 6 ½ furlongs

Javier Castellano

Javier seems to be most dominant, breaking from P.P.3.  The combining of P.P.’s 3-5 seems nice, based on Win Track Variance.  If there may be a weakness in his Sprint races, it might be outside P.P.6.

Middle

Dirt races, 7 Furlongs to one mile

Luis Saez

Luis shows a steady domination across the track.  Based on the Win Track Variance, I would feel a lot more confident on my backing of him, from P.P.’s 2-4.  But, when it comes to Middle distance races, I wouldn’t say that he has any weak spot, based on the Post Position success.

Turf

Javier Castellano

On turf, Javier might be a little gun shy, from breaking nearest the hedge(P.P.1).  Based on Win Track Variance, maybe P.P.’s 4-6 would be his garden trip?  Doesn’t seem to be any major flaws across the track.  Guess that’s why he’s the leading jockey!!!!!

That about does it for this week.  Congrats to Zatt, and his expert handicapping piece last week.  Next week, we’ll take a more in-depth look at Off track success, versus Fast track.

Hoping that the Winner’s window cashed in nothing but silver dollars for you.

~Written by Brian Bradley