Who to use — and who to lose — in your Malibu Stakes bets

The headliner for Tuesday's opening day card at Santa Anita Park, the Grade 1, $300,000 Malibu Stakes, features a cast of 3-year-olds each looking to win for the first time at the top level. With Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener, we've got advice for which contender should break though -- and which favorite we're counting out.

The Super Screener Stakes Weekly analysis is based on a robust, time-tested research methodology driven by a set of rules, with the inspiration for this product came from our loyal Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup Super Screener customers. They have often asked us for a product focused on analyzing the key graded stakes that run each weekend throughout the year.

What's offered here -- for free -- is only a small sample of the full product now available! The Screener will also cover the Malibu's companion race, the Grade 1 La Brea for fillies, along with other Tuesday stakes at Santa Anita. So, on to the preview…

Over the past six editions of the Malibu, the race has been won five times by a horse exiting a Breeders’ Cup race. Pavel is the only horse that meets that condition. Only one long shot has won this race over the past 10 years. Bob Baffert is 7-for-7 with at least one horse hitting the Superfecta over the past seven runnings. Closers very much dominate the fourth-place spot, historically, and are a rare occurrence for the win spot. 

USE: #3 Irish Freedom (5-1)

Strong confidence win play here. Has improved big with each race. Ran giant races against top older horses in his two most recent races. Turn back in distance a big plus. Will sit mid-pack, and then no one will be running faster late. 

LOSE: #6 Pavel (4-1)

Rapid improver crushed foes in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones and then ran a huge race in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, finishing a game third behind Diversify and Keen Ice. Was completely overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Can get a piece here but is considered a toss by the Screener.