Whitney fair odds: Why not try to beat both favorites at Saratoga?

First things first. I took the same approach to my fair odds for Saturday's Grade 1 Whitney as David Aragona took to the morning line. I am assuming Mindframe will scratch if Fierceness starts.

His participation would not have much effect on the dynamics of how the race will be run, but it does shift the focus on wagering approach. With him and Fierceness running, I would expect there to be value on one of the big three horses. Just bet whomever the public is not if you think they're about evenly matched. Without Mindframe, though, it seems as though both Sierra Leona and Fierceness, who finished 1-2 in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, still will be underlays against the other seven entrants.

Even with a lot more speed signed here than Sierra Leone has gotten in his first two starts as a 4-year-old, I prefer Fierceness slightly. Again, unfortunately, I do not think either will be a playable number. I'm not going to focus on who will win so much as thinking that betting the Classic exacta completely out of the Whitney exacta is the right approach.

Here's my thoughts, from the top down.

1. I'm treating Mindframe as a scratch.

2. Skippylongstocking is versatile, which should help in a race with two no-hopers expected to be on the lead in Mama's Gold and near the lead in Sierra Leone's stablemate Contrary Thinking. In his last four starts, Skippy has been everywhere, from on the lead to sixth by three lengths.

3. I'm tossing Highland Falls. His best race was last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), and the class in there just does not stack up to this. Plus he still needs to improve off that.

4. Mama's Gold will get some calls early.

5. Sierra Leone is a likely winner but a likely underlay. He probably would be my pick with Mindframe and the odds boost that comes with it, but he will be overbet.

6. Disarm has the same vibes as Highland Falls but is even less likely to win.

7. White Abarrio has run plenty of races that could win this even if both Sierra Leona and Fierceness fire. Given he will be comfortably the third choice, he is usable in our exacta scheme.

8. Contrary Thinking is an interesting Chad Brown entrant. Obviously the idea is to ensure a spirited pace, but he will have a lot of work to do to be on the lead. More likely is that he makes the first move to ensure things get prompted.

9.. Fierceness is the most likely winner, but it's close with Sierra Leone. The price just will not be there, given my opinion of this race. Those who are big believers in him, though, are likely happy with at least 8-5.

10. Post Time benefits from Mama's Gold and Contrary Thinking just as much as Sierra Leone does, and you get triple the price.

Arsenic to my throat, I'd probably go with Post Time as the pick, as I see him as likely the biggest overlay,. But wagering-wise I'm good boxing 2, 7, 10. If Post Time is the fifth or longer choice, then that might fold in an opportunity to key in the trifecta with Sierra Leone or Fierceness as well.