Whitney Stakes: Odds and analysis for a pick-'em race

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Leading horses in the older male dirt division move to Saratoga for the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney, a win-and-you’re-in qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 1.

The field for the 1 1/8-mile Whitney includes eight horses who have career earnings of over $1 million. There are eight graded-stakes winners, and five have at least one Grade 1 victory. Overall, the 10 horses have 55 wins and more than $27.97 million in purse money to their credit.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Whitney with the official track morning-line odds. The Whitney is set as race 11 of 13 with post time scheduled for 5:41 p.m. EDT.

1. Mindframe, 5-2. Constitution – Todd Pletcher / Jose Gomez – 7: 5-2-0 - $1,844,580. Mindframe is currently the No. 2-ranked thoroughbred in the country based on his three graded-stakes victories this year, including the Gulfstream Park Mile (G1) and the Stephen Foster (G1). He is not expected to run in the Whitney but was entered in case stablemate Fierceness is unable to run Saturday. Mindframe is expected to make his next start in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 31. Not expected to run.

2. Skippylongstocking, 10-1. Exaggerator – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Jose Ortiz – 33: 11-3-7 - $3,661,610. The 6-year-old Skippylongstocking continues to win. This year he won the Challenger (G3) at Tampa and the Gold Cup (G2) at Santa Anita in May. Since finishing fifth in last year’s Whitney, Skippy ran seven times, all in graded stakes. But his 11 career victories are missing a Grade 1 score, so it is hard to expect him to break through in this stacked field. Toss.

3. Highland Falls, 8-1. Curlin – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 11: 6-2-1 - $1,312,660. Highland Falls became a two-time graded-stakes winner last year in the Blame (G3) and the Jockey Club Gold Cup. His final start of 2024 was a ninth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Highland Falls returned to the races at the end of June with an allowance victory at Aqueduct. Toss.

4. Mama’s Gold, 50-1. Bolt d’Oro– James Ferraro / Romero Maragh – 23: 6-4-0 - $446,161. Mama’s Gold has early speed that he used to win the Empire Classic for New York-breds in October. This year he was second in an open-company allowance and seventh in the Excelsior. Last month he was second in the Commentary for state-breds at Saratoga during the Belmont Stakes meeting. Toss.

5. Sierra Leone, 2-1. Gun Runner – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat –11: 4-4-3 - $6,256,200. Sierra Leone has a consistent record of only top three finishes, all of them in graded stakes except for his debut maiden win. He was second in the Kentucky Derby by a nose and won a pair of prestigious Grade 1 stakes, Blue Grass and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. This year began with a third in the New Orleans Classic (G2) and a second behind Mindframe in the Stephen Foster. Win contender.

6. Disarm, 15-1. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 16: 4-3-4 - $1,439,165. Disarm was fourth in the 2023 Kentucky Derby and then won the Matt Winn (G3). Since then, he has a pair of allowance wins, one at Churchill in 2024 and the other in March at Oaklawn in his first start of 2025. Last seen he was fourth in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Toss.

7. White Abarrio, 4-1. Race Day – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 22: 10-2-3 - $7,031,920. White Abarrio leads the distinguished Whitney field in earnings with more than $7 million. He won the Whitney and the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2023. Last year his only victory was in an allowance at Gulfstream. In 2025 he began with a win in the Ghostzapper (G3) at his home base at the Florida track. White Abarrio was fourth in the Met Mile (G1) at Saratoga in June. From his 10 victories only two were away from Gulfstream, and they were both in 2023. Toss.

8. Contrary Thinking, 50-1. Into Mischief – Chad Brown / Dylan Davis – 5: 2-0-0 - $102,540. Contrary Thinking was a front-end winner of an allowance in June and will make his first start in a stakes race in the Whitney. Looks like trainer Chad Brown might have entered him to make sure there is a fast early pace to aid his stablemate Sierra Leone. Toss.

9. Fierceness, 9-5. City of Light – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 11: 6-2-1 - $4,515,320. Fierceness returns to Saratoga, where he won three times, as a first-time starter in his 2023 maiden and last year in the Jim Dandy (G2) and the Travers. He won both of his starts at the nine-furlong distance of the Whitney in the Florida Derby (G1) and the Jim Dandy. This year he won the Alysheba (G1) and was second in the Met Mile. Top pick.

10. Post Time, 12-1. Frosted – Brittany Russell / Sheldon Russell – 18: 11-3-4 - $1,363,600. Post Time is tied with Skippylongstocking with 11 career victories and like that one he does not have a Grade 1 win. Last year he tried Grade 1 company three times and he was second in the Met Mile, third in the Whitney and second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. This year Post Time won twice at Laurel Park when he romped in an allowance and won the Deputed Testimony as the 1-10 favorite. He has an incredible record with top-three finishes in all 18 starts. Use underneath.

Summary: The Whitney is run at 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga and that is an ideal fit for Fierceness. The champion son of City of Light won both of his starts at nine furlongs, taking down the Florida Derby and the Jim Dandy. At Saratoga he won three of his four starts at distances ranging from six to 10 furlongs.

Sierra Leone is hard to beat when there is a strong early pace that sets up his closing move. The pace projector says that a fast pace is likely. Chad Brown and owner Peter Brant entered stablemate Contrary Thinking to make sure that the pace is ideal.

Fierceness and Sierra Leone will meet for the fifth time on Saturday. Sierra Leone had the better finish in the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Fierceness prevailed in the Jim Dandy and the Travers.

The Whitney is a pick 'em kind of sporting event, too close to call. Fierceness over Sierra Leone or Sierra Leone over Fierceness? As I post this article I will make Fierceness my top pick, but I am not sure I will feel that way tomorrow.