Whitney Stakes 2019: Odds and analysis
Saturday's Whitney Stakes marks a clash involving current and future millionaires. While the Grade 1 race offers $1 million in purse money, most in the field of eight will seek to pad bankrolls with five runners already sporting earnings into seven figures.
The international superstar Thunder Snow's the richest racehorse among them with $16 million banked around the world. Add in the other millionaires -- Yoshida, McKinzie, Imperative and Vino Rosso -- and this is a $24,931,631 field.
With post time scheduled for 5:46 p.m. ET at Saratoga, meet the field set to go nine furlongs with the official morning line below. The Whitney also offers a "Win and You're In" spot to the Breeders' Cup Classic.
1) Imperative [ML 30-1 – Bernardini – A. Quartarolo/J. Bracho – 49: 7-8-4 - $3,277,810] You have to tip your hat to this 9-year-old and all that he has achieved in his career. He is still winning races with a recent allowance score at Thistledown. However, his last stakes win came in the Charles Town Classic (G2) back in 2017. Imperative will have to be supplemented into the field by co-owner Ron Paolucci, who said on Twitter, “He’s as good as he’s ever been right now…if he’s not competitive he will be retired. My partner and I both agree on this! No better place or race if it’s his last dance!” Toss.
2) Forewarned [ML 30-1 – Flat Out – U. St. Lewis/D. Davis – 17: 6-4-0 - $205,613] Trainer Uriah St. Lewis sprung a big upset in New York with Discreet Lover’s win in the 2018 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). However, this Ohio-bred is at best the winner of state-bred races at Thistledown. His most-recent victory was in a second-level optional claiming allowance at Parx Racing. Toss.
3) Monongahela [ML 12-1 – One King – J. Servis/J. Lezcano – 24: 6-11-2 - $381,043] This 5-year-old was the last minute addition to the field. He was the winner of the Iselin (G3) at Monmouth Park in his most recent start at odds of 4-1. Going back to the winter, he had a streak of four second-place finishes in stakes races at tracks in the Mid-Atlantic region. As we have frequently seen, trainer Jason Servis can get the best out of his horses in the big races. Still, this does seem too big a step up. Toss.
4) Thunder Snow (IRE) [ML 3-1 – Helmet (AUS) – S. bin Saeed/C. Soumillon – 24: 8-7-4 - $16,511,476] If you think back to when Thunder Snow lost his mind in the 2017 Kentucky Derby post parade, it is an amazing accomplishment to the see the $16 million bankroll listed after his name. Of course, his earnings are bolstered by winning the Dubai World Cup (G1) the past two years. Most recently seen running third in the Met Mile (G1), the Godolphin runner has never won a race in America with a record of 4: 0-1-2 and all four of those starts coming in Grade 1s. Despite all of the earnings, the 5-year-old clearly has something to prove in the Whitney. Top choice.
5) Vino Rosso [ML 6-1 – Curlin – T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez – 12: 5-0-2 - $1,253,015] His victory in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) was a validation of his talent after a series of disappointing finishes as a 3-year-old. He is another runner in this field from whom it is hard to know what to expect. It has been more than two months since he shipped to California. This year, Vino Rosso has won two of three starts with his only loss coming in the seven-furlong Carter Handicap (G1) that served as an excellent prep race for the Gold Cup. Was maturity all that Vino Rosso needed to become a consistent performer? Win contender.
6) McKinzie [ML 7-5 – Street Sense – B. Baffert/M. Smith – 11: 6-4-0 - $1,703,560] The Whitney is an important race for McKinzie. Yes, he had a troubled trip last time when he came up short in the Met Mile (G1) behind Mitole, but when you look at his 4: 1-3-0 record for 2019 it's obvious this leading Bob Baffert trainee needs to find the winner’s circle again or risk a trend of near misses. McKinzie has only that one victory in the Alysheba (G2) since competing outside of the races that were restricted to 3-year-olds. The Baffert/Smith combination pretty much guarantees that McKinzie will be heavily bet. Baffert is looking for his first victory in the Whitney. Win contender.
7) Yoshida (JPN) [ML 12-1 – Hearts Cry (JPN) – W. Mott/J. Ortiz – 15: 5-3-0 - $2,185,770] Yoshida returns to Saratoga, which is the site of his last victory in the 2018 Woodward. He followed that Grade 1 win with a troubled fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Yoshida went into that Woodward win after two fifth-place results. This year, a trip to the Dubai World Cup (G1) and the Stephen Foster (G2) yielded two sixth-place finishes. While the Bill Mott barn is producing lots of winners at Saratoga, who knows what to expect. At his best, Yoshida's a contender. Live longshot.
8) Preservationist [ML 3-1 – Arch – J. Jerkens/J. Alvarado – 8: 5-1-2 - $572,300] This 6-year-old has put the pieces together with a current three-race win streak topped by his first graded stake victory in the Suburban (G2) at Belmont Park over Catholic Boy. The lightly raced horse has never finished off the board in eight career starts. However, this a formidable field for the son of Arch. Use underneath.
Summary: This year’s Whitney does not appear to be a race that is pace dependent, but rather a field of horses from which handicappers need to figure out who will be in top form. The field size and the nine-furlong distance should decrease the chance that the race will come down to a trip.
That makes the task of picking the Whitney winner sound easy. Not so much, because for me this Grade 1 is a guessing game, and the victory could easily go to four of the horses.