Whitney fair odds: Long shot is a must-use vs. National Treasure

I abhor the cliche "this is a great betting race" as a surrogate for a big field lacking a heavy favorite.

Because of takeout, no race is guaranteed to be a good betting race, and even if you have a strong opinion, if enough of the public agrees with you then there's no edge.

So when the Grade 1 Whitney on Saturday at Saratoga drew 12 horses but only one multiple Grade 1 winner, National Treasure, and the immediate reaction was, "this is a great betting race!" I was incredulous.

But it is a great betting race. Or at least it figures to be if David Aragona's morning line is correct.

The biggest struggle is how much to lean on National Treasure, winner of the Met Mile (G1) last out at Saratoga. He is the 9-5 morning-line favorite and has fair odds of 2-1. But my second-most likely winner is First Mission at 7-1 fair odds. That means I think National Treasure is 2.6 times more likely to win this race than First Mission, and 7-1 fair odds against a 9-2 morning line is a much bigger underlay than 2-1 against 9-5.

National Treasure had a disappointing late spring-summer stretch last year after winning the Preakness Stakes. But he has rattled off four good efforts since his runner-up finish to eventual horse of the year Cody's Wish in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, including a win in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) at this distance. He wins this race a third of the time and would easily be my bet to show for my life.

But who is most worth a bet? It has to be Warrior Johny, whose only test of the Grade 1 waters was a disappointing seventh at 8.6-1 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year at Saratoga. But he has run Ragozin Figures close to National Treasure in his last three efforts and will get six pounds from the favorite. This is a must-use for me on every ticket, and I will be keying him with National Treasure in the gimmicks.

Skippylongstocking is my other play. I would not want him to beat me if I'm right about everything else. He was third in the Stephen Foster (G1), but it was oddly run. And his numbers are too consistently good enough to dismiss him at 8-1 both on the morning line and in my fair odds.