Whitney 2020: Odds and analysis

The mile and an eighth Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga on Saturday drew a field of five headed by the morning line favorite Tom’s d’Etat. In addition to the $750,000 purse as part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series, the field will vie for a “Win and You’re In” spot for the BC Classic.

All five horses in the field have earned at least $1 million in their careers and they are all stakes winners. Four of them have a graded stakes victory and three of those have a Grade 1 win in their past performances.

Here is a full-field analysis of the Whitney, which is carded as race 9 out of 12, with morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation. Post time is scheduled for 5:46 pm ET.

By My Standards [ML 4-1 - Goldencents – B. Calhoun/J. Ortiz – 10: 5-3-1 - $1,378,910] This 4-year-old had his three-race winning streak snapped in the Stephen Foster (G2) when he could not keep up with Tom’s d’Etat down the stretch. In that race, he got farther behind than usual as he is typically pressing the early pace, but he did clearly beat the rest of the field. I’m not sure how the son of Goldencents will be able to turn the tables on Tom’s d’ Etat in here. The Bret Calhoun trainee has won three of four starts at this distance of nine furlongs. PRESSER, use underneath

Improbable [ML 7-2 - City Zip – B. Baffert/I. Ortiz Jr. – 12: 5-3-0 - $1,129,520] Trainer Bob Baffert loves shipping up to Saratoga where he has had some very big victories and one of them was in the Whitney last year with McKinzie. Improbable got a big Grade 1 win last time going ten furlongs in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He overcame past gate problems to control that race from the start. This, however, is a formidable field and the nine furlongs may not be his best distance, especially on a deep track like Saratoga. He does his best when he sits off the early pace and he’ll find Tom’s d’ Etat and By My Standards doing the same thing. STALKER, use underneath

Code of Honor [ML 2-1 - Noble Mission– S. McGaughey /J. Velazquez – 12: 6-2-2 - $2,473,320] Trainer Shug McGaughey won the Whitney three times with some very talented horses -- Honor Code in 2015, Easy Goer in 1989, and in 1988 with Personal Ensign. This year he has Code of Honor, who returns to his favorite track and a much better distance than his previous start. Most recently, he ran a third in the Met Mile (G1) against a field that was more sprint oriented. Last year, Code of Honor won the Jim Dandy (G2) and the Travers (G1) at Saratoga where he has a perfect record. The surface and the distance suit his late running style and he is likely to be making the last run. CLOSER, win contender.

Mr. Buff [ML 15-1 Friend or Foe – J. Kimmel /J. Alvarado – 38: 14-7-4 - $1,084,536] The New York-bred has won twice at Saratoga and has nine career victories at the mile and an eighth distance, but he has not had any luck when he faces graded stakes company. He will ensure an honest early pace, but I don’t see why the Whitney should produce different results for this 6-year-old. SPEED, toss

Tom's d'Etat [ML 3-2 - Quality Road – A. Stall, Jr./J. Rosario – 18: 11 -2-1 - $1,627,272] Trainer Al Stall Jr. won this race back in 2010 with the great Blame and interestingly the 7-year-old Tom’s d’Etat comes to the Whitney with a similar series of victories as Blame. Like Blame, he is in the finest form of his career while riding a four-race win streak. There is no question that he is at the top of the Older Male Dirt division especially after his powerful win in the Stephen Foster when he raced much closer the early lead than usual. Down the stretch he displayed an impressive turn of foot that left the field more than four lengths behind. Stall handles his star carefully and skillfully and he will be very hard to beat at Saratoga where he has won three out of four starts in his career. STALKER, top choice

Summary: Tom’s d’Etat showed his versatility in the Stephen Foster when they staying closer to the pace than in many of his other wins. That will help him in the Whitney where he may once again want to take control of the race sooner than later. The rest of the field is running for the place money if Tom's d'Etat puts in another top effort.