Whitmore fair odds: Can Tejano Twist run down Ryvit?

It's a classic battle in the Grade 3 Whitmore on Saturday at Oaklawn, pitting the early speed of no. 3 Ryvit against the late speed of no. 2 Tejano Twist.

Generally, I give the edge to early speed over late speed, but others in here could pressure Ryvit enough early to help things for Tejano Twist late.

For that reason, I have Tejano Twist as a more likely winner than Ryvit, but that is purely academic, as I do not expect either to offer fair value from a win perspective.

But there is opportunity here based on separate scenarios where only one of the top contenders runs well enough to finish in the top two.

If Ryvit has pace his own way and things are soft up front and immediately behind him, then Tejano Twist is in big trouble. Ryvit should win easily if alone on the lead and either no. 4 Surveillance or no. 5 Ninja Warrior should be right behind him to complete the exacta.

If Ryvit is over-pressured up front, then he might back out of it completely, or at least back out of the exacta, and Tejano Twist would be the clear beneficiary of that from a win perspective. Surveillance or Ninja Warrior could still be part of the exacta.