Which of Saturday's 3 preps has more Kentucky Derby success?

Ever since the powers-that-be decreed a qualifying-points system nine years ago, pacesetters and stalkers have dominated the Kentucky Derby. Even considering the DQ asterisks of 2019 and 2021, “forwardly placed” has applied to every first-place finisher since 2014.

No wonder the Santa Anita Derby has been a bellwether. Nothing says California racing like early speed. Since 2012, the Grade 1 feature now worth $750,000 has produced four winners in Kentucky and, of course, the late Medina Spirit, who crossed first in 2021 but was dethroned by a failed drug test.

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There is no doubt about it. The West Coast produces early speed that has been rewarded both at home and in Kentucky. The other major preps that will be renewed Saturday – the $1 million Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland and the $750,000 Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct – have their own characteristics and have had their shares of Derby winners since 2000.

Santa Anita Derby

It has not been only in the points-prep era. Since 2000, 12 finishers from the Santa Anita Derby, including Medina Spirit, went on to finish in the money in the Kentucky Derby. Ten of them carried E (early) or E/P (early presser) Quirin Speed Points into Churchill Downs, according to Brisnet. Translation: They tended to be forwardly placed.

Here is a list of all the Santa Anita Derby graduates who ran for the roses since 2000, including their Quirins – P means presser (mid-pack) and S is for sustaining (closer). The higher the number (0-8), the more likely they were to lead going into the first turn.

That pattern has not always held true in finding a winner of the prep itself. I’ll Have Another, California Chrome and Justify were on or close to the lead throughout their wins at Santa Anita, but four of the last six winners in April came from off the pace. Here are the horses who scored in the Santa Anita Derby since 2000.

Messier (1-1), the morning-line favorite Saturday, fits the front-running profile, carrying an E/P 6 Quirin designation and having led at every call Feb. 6 when he won the Robert B. Lewis (G3).

Blue Grass Stakes

It has been 15 years since a horse from the Blue Grass Stakes won the Kentucky Derby. That was Street Sense, who closed from next to last to win at Churchill Downs.

That was before the points era. In the nine years since the current qualifying system was put in place, only three horses graduated from Keeneland to finish in the Derby top three. Good Magic, second in 2018, and Mr. Big News, third in the COVID year of 2020, came from off the pace. Essential Quality, promoted to third after last year’s race, carried the E/P designation of a stalker.

Five of the last seven Blue Grass winners were never more than 1 1/2 lengths off the pace at any call. But the race has not had a gate-to-wire winner since Sinister Minister in 2006.

Expected to be the favorite Saturday, Smile Happy (9-5) has come from at least fifth place in each of his two wins and was as far back as eighth on his way to finishing second last out in the Risen Star (G2).

Wood Memorial

Fusaichi Pegasus, Monarchos and Funny Cide represented the heyday of the Wood Memorial. They carried the momentum of the early New York spring all the way to the winner’s circle in Kentucky.

But since 2003, when Funny Cide and Empire Maker finished 1-2 at Churchill to reverse their outcome at Aqueduct, the Wood has produced only one horse who hit the board in the Derby. That was Tacitus, who was promoted from fourth to third when Maximum Security was disqualified 22 minutes after finishing first in 2019.

Even though the Derby points system has rewarded early speed, the Wood has been a proving ground lately for closers. Five of its last seven winners were at least 4 1/2 lengths behind. Last year Bourbonic was 10 1/2 lengths up the track on the backstretch before Kendrick Carmouche uncorked him for a 72-1 stunner.

Undefeated Morello (8-5) has an E/P designation, and he has not been more than 1 1/2 lengths off the pace in his three wins, each at one turn. Early Voting (5-2), unbeaten in two starts, is a speed horse. Mo Donegal (5-2) is a closer. They will provide some variety to the pace map Saturday.