Which Turfway jockeys are riding the best this meet?

Through the first six weeks of the Turfway meet, as anticipated we've seen huge fields and big payoffs. Since the start of the meet, Turfway is leading the country with a field size of 10, and the average win price is $16.44. Favorites are winning at a rate of only 28.7 percent. 

As difficult as Turfway can be to handicap, it has to be a big challenge for riders. Sprints and routes play differently, and different pace scenarios often develop from race to race. Additionally, the winter meet has a large and diverse jockey colony with several apprentice riders and jockeys coming from other tracks. Many are riding the synthetic for the first time. 

Knowing which jockeys are riding best overall and in certain circumstances can be a big advantage. Looking at the spreadsheet below, we've highlighted where jocks are overperforming or underperforming in terms of win percentage and HRN impact, which is a metric similar to ROI but better because it assesses the chances of every starter, not just what the winners pay. 

Luan Machado is leading the meet with an impressive 21 percent win percentage leading to a +46 percent HRN impact. Digging further into sprints and routes, note he is winning at 15 percent sprinting, but the impact is only +1 percent. This means he is winning about as much as he should according to the odds of his runners. But routing, he is winning a whopping 25 percent for a huge impact of +78 percent.  This means that he's winning almost twice as much as he should according to his odds. 

Axel Concepcion, currently in second place in the standings, has a similar pattern. He is winning 17 percent overall, but he's better in routes than sprints. 

Conversely, Alberto Burgos, who is winning at 21 percent overall, is winning a huge 30 percent sprinting but only 6 percent routing. 

What are the reasons for the disparities? It could be many things, such as riding style pr the horses they are riding. But looking below, we see there are strong patterns developing that can help you in your wagering.