Which 100-point prep is more likely to produce Derby winner?

As long as they are eligible, the winners are mathematically assured of berths in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. The second-place horses also have a good shot at getting there.

The 100-40-20-10 point preps are at hand, eight races compressed into 15 days. Most are at the top level on their own merit. But as springboards to America’s biggest race, which ones are the most influential in producing winners at Churchill Downs? 

The answer is as varied as their history.

UAE Derby (G2), March 26, Meydan. There is a sense of insanity with this race, at least when it is defined as doing something over and over yet expecting a different result. In the 21 previous runnings of this 1 3/16-mile contest on the Dubai World Cup (G1) undercard, 16 horses made the trip from Dubai to Kentucky. None finished better than fifth at Churchill Downs. Pick a reason for these failures – the long trip, substandard competition, differences in the dirt, training tactics, bad luck. The epitome of UAE Derby frustration came in 2017, when Thunder Snow went into the Churchill Downs gates with a payload of foreign hype and came out looking like a bucking bronco, leaving Christophe Soumillon to hang on for dear life.

Louisiana Derby (G2), March 26, Fair Grounds. Last year proved again that horses are not history majors. Before that only four 3-year-olds – Black Gold in 1924, Grindstone in 1996, Funny Cide in 2003 and Country House in 2019 – had parlayed the New Orleans race that began in 1894 into the ultimate victory in Louisville. Only 12 graduates from this feature had hit the board at Kentucky since 1980. Then came 2021 – and eventually February 2022, when Kentucky stewards disqualified the late Medina Spirit from his triumph because of his failure of a post-race drug test. The new results meant the Louisiana Derby produced four of the top five Kentucky Derby finishers – Mandaloun first, Hot Rod Charlie second, O Besos fourth and Midnight Bourbon fifth. If the asterisks still fuel skepticism, it comes from the fact that Fair Grounds has been kind to closers, something that cannot be said lately in the Run for the Roses. At least not without the intervention of stewards.

Florida Derby (G1), April 2, Gulfstream Park. This spring marks the 70th anniversary of the first running of this 1 1/8-mile race, which has produced 24 winners at Churchill Downs, more than any other Derby prep. Always Dreaming in 2017 was the most recent horse to win both races. The current five-year dry spell between Kentucky Derby winners is the longest for this race in more than 20 years. The last seven Florida Derby graduates to wear the Louisville roses won both races, which might be a testament to the quality of horses coming through the Gulfstream Park winter. Then again, Known Agenda won the 2021 Florida Derby and finished only eighth at Churchill.

Arkansas Derby (G1), April 2, Oaklawn. It is not often nowadays that a Kentucky Derby winner will have raced in two of these 100-point preps during a normal year. Country House did just that in 2019, when the Louisiana and Arkansas derbies were three weeks apart. Now that there is only a seven-day gap, don’t count on that happening again. Since the 1 1/8-mile race began in 1936, it produced seven Kentucky Derby winners, none before Sunny’s Halo in 1983. Smarty Jones put the race on the map in 2004 when he won it before his triumphs in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. The race’s most fruitful era was the 2010s, when Super Saver in 2010, American Pharoah in 2015 and then Country House used it as a springboard to win the roses. Super Stock won at Oaklawn last year before he came in 15th at Kentucky.

Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), April 2, Turfway Park. This could be known as the race to be named later. It began 50 years ago as the Latonia Spiral, a one-mile dirt race. It has been branded and rebranded by corporate sponsors, and it has gone from a mile on dirt to 1 1/8 miles on a synthetic track. Since Turfway was sold to Churchill Downs Inc., the Jeff Ruby has become a major points prep for the Kentucky Derby. Before that, two horses – Lil E. Tee in 1992 and Animal Kingdom in 2011 – won both races. Since 2013, none of the eight horses coming out of what is now the Jeff Ruby finished better than 10th in Louisville, including three last year.

Wood Memorial (G2), April 9, Aqueduct. History was once kind to this 97-year-old race, which has been run at 1 1/8 miles since 1952. Secretariat, third in the 1973 Wood, and Seattle Slew, the 1977 winner, made Aqueduct their last stop before their Triple Crowns. But since Funny Cide 19 years ago, no Derby winner has come out of this climactic race of the Aqueduct winter. When 2019 Wood winner Tacitus was promoted to third in Kentucky, that was the only time since the Funny Cide-Empire Maker exacta in 2003 that a horse came out of the New York prep to hit the board in the Derby.

Blue Grass (G1), April 9, Keeneland. Only the Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners than the 23 from this 1 1/8-mile race, which began in 1911 and has been run every year since 1937. The only one since 1996 was Street Sense, who delivered at Churchill Downs for trainer Carl Nafzger after he finished second in the 2007 Blue Grass. The last two years have seen the Keeneland race produce two third-place finishers in Louisville – Mr. Big News in the COVID-extended season of 2020 and the promoted Essential Quality in 2021. Since Spectacular Bid in 1979, only Strike the Gold in 1991 has won both races.

Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 9, Santa Anita. It appeared for a while that this race had produced its 20th Kentucky Derby winner last spring. That was before Santa Anita Derby runner-up Medina Spirit’s disqualification last month. Otherwise, the race, which began in 1935 and has been run at 1 1/8 miles since 1948, has been on a hot streak. I’ll Have Another in 2012, California Chrome in 2014, eventual Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018 and Authentic in 2020 each won this race and the Kentucky Derby. Bob Baffert trained the last two in addition to the late Medina Spirit. And if Baffert remains banned from sending horses to Churchill Downs, a record-extending 10th win in the Santa Anita Derby would be a moot point in any conversation about May 7 at Churchill Downs.