What's the weather outlook for Kentucky Derby 2023?

The last three editions of the Kentucky Derby have been run on a fast track. The two prior runnings took place in showery conditions over a sloppy, sealed main track, including in 2018, when a Derby day record 3.15 inches of rain fell in Louisville, Ky.

So what's the outlook for Kentucky Derby 2023? Early indications are that it will be a fast track again at Churchill Downs, but a chance of rain has popped into the forecast.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the National Weather Service forecast called for a partly sunny Saturday with a 20 percent chance of showers and a high temperature near 73 degrees.

That would follow what is shaping up to be a rainy Friday for the Kentucky Oaks.

The Friday forecast called a 60 percent chance of showers, mainly after 2 p.m. EDT, with a high near 67. There is a 70 percent chance of showers Friday night, mainly before 8 p.m. It doesn't look like it'll be a heavy rain, with the forecast calling for less than a tenth of an inch during the day and evening.

Here are Derby weather facts from the National Weather Service:

Coldest temperature: 36 degrees, May 4, 1940, and May 4, 1957

Coldest high temperature: 47 degrees, May 4, 1935, and May 4, 1957

Coldest average daily temperature: 42 degrees, May 4, 1957

Warmest temperature: 94 degrees, May 2, 1959

Warmest low temperature: 72 degrees, May 14, 1886

Warmest average daily temperature: 79 degrees, May 14, 1886

Wettest: 3.15 inches of rain, May 5, 2018

Frozen precipitation:  On May 6, 1989, sleet was observed from 1:01 p.m. to 1:05 p.m.

Of the 148 Derby days, 70 (47 percent) experienced rain at some point during the day.

Longest stretch of consecutive wet Derby days (24 hours): seven (2007-13)

Longest stretch of consecutive wet Derby days (1 p.m.-7 p.m.): six (1989-94)

Longest stretch of consecutive dry Derby days (24 hours): eight (1937-44)

Longest stretch of consecutive dry Derby days (1 p.m-7 p.m.): 12 (1875-1886)

The above records, unless otherwise noted, are for the entire calendar day – not necessarily race time. Also, the figures are from the official observation site for the city of Louisville, not at Churchill Downs itself.