What is the Kentucky Derby's Jan. 1 jinx? See for yourself
Call it what it is — the winter-book jinx. If it holds true in 2021, neither Essential Quality nor Life Is Good will win the Kentucky Derby.
Little more than bragging rights go along with the honor of being the Las Vegas favorite on New Year’s Day to win four (or more) months later in the Derby.
Churchill Downs maintains such a list of what it still calls winter-book favorites. It goes back to 1979, when Spectacular Bid had the honor — and won the roses. In the 41 runnings since, only Street Sense in 2007 has held that distinction and still cashed in May.
Unless something drastic happens by the end of the week, Essential Quality will be the Jan. 1 favorite at William Hill Nevada, carrying odds of 8-1. Life Is Good will be shortest priced at Circa Sports, showing at 9-1 (actually +950).
In an otherwise quiet week on the Derby trail, Circa made the odds longer on 94 of its horses and shortened them for 16. William Hill raised the odds for four horses and lowered them for four others.
Circa also added six horses:
Alain Barows (55-1). Can a good horse from Japan be taken seriously by bettors going long on a U.S. classic? With an undefeated record in five races as a 2-year-old, “good” is no longer a question. At odds of 9-2, this $95,000 colt by Henny Hughes won by five lengths in the first Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby race nearly two weeks ago. Even without a run-up, though, his mile time of 1:40.7 will fuel skepticism.
Wipe the Slate (65-1). Owner Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutiérrez won the Kentucky Derby twice in the ’10s with I’ll Have Another and Nyquist. They are together again with this thrice-sold son of Nyquist who broke his maiden Saturday at Santa Anita on his second try, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 88. His first try was a 9 1/2-length loss to Circa’s Derby favorite, Life Is Good.
Affable (80-1). This Flatter colt from Mark Glatt’s barn finished second to Wipe the Slate as the even-money favorite in Saturday’s seven-furlong race. He also finished second when Savile Row made his winning debut, so he has been in fast company. He has shown a late turn of foot in both his starts, suggesting that his stalking style might yet fit well when he graduates to two turns.
Barraza (90-1). On paper, what’s not to like? He is by Into Mischief, who sired this year’s Kentucky Derby winner Authentic. He is a Spendthrift homebred, and he is trained by Bob Baffert. What’s not to like has been on the track. Barraza failed to hit the board in his two starts, most recently Saturday’s fade from first to fourth in the same race as Wipe the Slate and Affable.
Defeater (150-1). This $210,000 colt by Union Rags makes his debut for trainer Tom Amoss on Saturday in a six-furlong maiden race at the Fair Grounds. He fired a bullet gate work 1 1/2 weeks ago, going five furlongs in 1:00.2. Drawn into a field of 11, Defeater will be on Lasix next weekend, so if he shows any promise for the spring, he eventually will have to be weaned from it.
Shackqueenking (250-1). Making his stakes debut in a 1 1/16-mile black-type race Saturday at Laurel Park, this modest $20,000 colt showed some fight in winning a serious stretch duel by a nose. It was the second victory for the son of Shackleford who is trained by Gary Capuano. All four of his starts have been at Laurel Park.
Following are the 211 horses listed at Circa Sports and William Hill Nevada with their Kentucky Derby odds:
Circa WH
350-1 500-1 Advance Cash
80-1 Affable
55-1 Alain Barows
250-1 150-1 Al Heybay
100-1 125-1 Alexander Valley
275-1 150-1 All Mo
175-1 150-1 Ambivalent
150-1 American Admiral
275-1 200-1 Ampersand
175-1 135-1 Angkor
50-1 Arabian Prince
300-1 250-1 Ascot Storm
300-1 175-1 Awesome Gerry
300-1 Baafeed
90-1 Barraza
300-1 250-1 Basso
400-1 Beatbox
150-1 125-1 Beep Beep
350-1 150-1 Belafonte
150-1 175-1 Big Daddy Dave
250-1 200-1 Big Flame
250-1 150-1 Blue Gator
250-1 150-1 Bob’s Edge
250-1 120-1 Boca Boy
150-1 125-1 Bolden
350-1 140-1 Bold Minister
250-1 200-1 Boomer
300-1 Bracken
125-1 150-1 Breeze On By
200-1 Broadway
70-1 85-1 Brooklyn Strong
125-1 By George
40-1 40-1 Caddo River
125-1 150-1 Cajun Commander
125-1 100-1 Calibrate
225-1 175-1 Camp Hope
125-1 75-1 Cazadero
225-1 125-1 Chicks For Free
350-1 Civil War
40-1 26-1 Classier
125-1 175-1 Cousin Larry
85-1 Cowan
350-1 Crazy Shot
350-1 200-1 Dalton
500-1 Dayoutoftheoffice
150-1 Defeater
250-1 Democrat
175-1 60-1 Donegal Bay
150-1 50-1 Dr. Schivel
250-1 Dreamer’s Disease
300-1 Drop Anchor
100-1 Dynamic One
250-1 Dyn O Mite
225-1 120-1 Eagle Orb
80-1 Editor in Chief
500-1 100-1 Effinity
200-1 Engrave
500-1 350-1 Erawan
16-1 8-1 Essential Quality
125-1 125-1 Ethical Judgement
125-1 125-1 Eucharist
125-1 Excellent Timing
250-1 250-1 Famous Gent
150-1 150-1 Fauci
200-1 Find New Roads
175-1 100-1 Founder
125-1 120-1 Freedom Fighter
100-1 150-1 Fury Kap
150-1 125-1 Gagetown
300-1 Game Day Play
150-1 175-1 Garoppolo
100-1 75-1 Get Her Number
225-1 Ghazaaly
500-1 Girl Daddy
250-1 125-1 Girther
75-1 Golden Pal
50-1 60-1 Greatest Honour
175-1 150-1 Hendavid
500-1 200-1 Hendrick
300-1 250-1 Hercules
165-1 140-1 Herd Immunity
165-1 100-1 Hidden Stash
45-1 40-1 Highly Motivated
400-1 150-1 Highway Bound
150-1 110-1 Hold the Salsa
250-1 Hopkins
250-1 200-1 Horn Of Plenty
60-1 50-1 Hot Rod Charlie
150-1 75-1 Huntsinger
150-1 100-1 Hyperfocus
150-1 175-1 Inspector Frost
250-1 160-1 Isolate
350-1 250-1 It Can Be Done
55-1 40-1 Jackie’s Warrior
100-1 75-1 Jaxon Traveler
275-1 Joe Frazier
200-1 125-1 Judge N Jury
65-1 50-1 Keepmeinmind
150-1 150-1 Kenny Had a Notion
100-1 125-1 King Fury
200-1 125-1 Known Agenda
200-1 150-1 Kwist
200-1 Lamutanaatty
80-1 Lemon Pop
70-1 Lidstrom
9-1 10-1 Life Is Good
225-1 130-1 Likeable
225-1 225-1 Lookin For Trouble
110-1 Lord Of War
225-1 150-1 Lugamo
70-1 50-1 Mandaloun
125-1 Manor House
75-1 100-1 Medina Spirit
70-1 75-1 Midnight Bourbon
300-1 250-1 Momos
85-1 75-1 Mutasaabeq
125-1 My Man Bags
85-1 Never Surprised
100-1 125-1 Next
100-1 125-1 No Cents
250-1 North Pole
500-1 Notable Exception
400-1 Notary
250-1 150-1 Nova Rags
275-1 Number One Dude
80-1 50-1 Olympiad
250-1 Oncoming Train
175-1 Outadore
150-1 Overtook
100-1 90-1 Parnelli
175-1 Petruchio
250-1 150-1 Pickin’ Time
250-1 Pico d’Oro
250-1 125-1 Poppy’s Pride
250-1 200-1 Positivity
55-1 50-1 Prate
27-1 22-1 Prime Factor
125-1 125-1 Prisoner
150-1 Proud Contender
150-1 125-1 Quick Tempo
225-1 140-1 Raison d’Air
225-1 250-1 Real Talk
75-1 40-1 Red Flag
125-1 100-1 Reinvestment Risk
125-1 150-1 Restored Order
100-1 125-1 Return the Ring
125-1 Ricochet
125-1 120-1 Risk Taking
175-1 Rock Sugar
200-1 125-1 Roderick
75-1 100-1 Rombauer
200-1 Rosenquist
200-1 150-1 Run Snappy
150-1 Runway Magic
250-1 200-1 Saffa’s Day
100-1 90-1 Santa Cruiser
60-1 50-1 Savile Row
200-1 Scarlet Fusion
100-1 100-1 Scarred
250-1 250-1 Schnell
300-1 175-1 Seazan
125-1 120-1 Seminole Beach
40-1 50-1 Señor Buscador
250-1 Shackqueenking
300-1 Shaftesbury
85-1 150-1 Sittin On Go
500-1 125-1 Slashing
85-1 75-1 Smiley Sobotka
200-1 140-1 Sonic Brees
500-1 175-1 Son Of A Beast
150-1 140-1 Sound The Charge
70-1 80-1 Speaker’s Corner
50-1 35-1 Spielberg
100-1 125-1 Starrininmydreams
100-1 75-1 Stayin’ Out Late
300-1 250-1 Superman Shaq
90-1 100-1 Super Stock
70-1 125-1 Swiftsure
100-1 100-1 Swill
125-1 140-1 Swot Analysis
300-1 250-1 Tacoflavoredkisses
75-1 90-1 Team Merchants
100-1 75-1 Ten For Ten
250-1 Tenor
80-1 The Great One
100-1 100-1 Therideofalifetime
200-1 150-1 Thranduil
400-1 200-1 Tiz Handsome
350-1 200-1 Tiz Mandate
300-1 Touchdown Brown
150-1 140-1 Twilight Blue
200-1 200-1 Ultimate Badger
100-1 160-1 Uno
200-1 175-1 Upstriker
500-1 500-1 Valiant Thor
125-1 150-1 Va Va Vegas
400-1 Vequist
90-1 60-1 Vittorio
200-1 140-1 Waist Deep
150-1 Warrior’s Pride
200-1 150-1 Waspirant
250-1 200-1 Weston
125-1 Weyburn
150-1 200-1 What’s Up Surfer
85-1 100-1 Whiskey Double
150-1 Willy Boi
65-1 Wipe the Slate
75-1 Witsel
200-1 150-1 Work Out
175-1 200-1 Wyfire
175-1 175-1 Xtreme Mayhem