West Virginia Derby fair odds: Focus on this reliable single

My biggest question about East Avenue in the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby is not whether he is best suited to win the 1 1/8-mile race against fellow 3-year-olds on Sunday night at Mountaineer but whether he will run well enough to make a second-half push as one of the top three-year olds.

That starts with the West Virginia Derby and seven other rivals including fellow Kentucky Derby starter Chunk of Gold and Ohio Derby (G3) third-place finisher McAfee. I'm hoping their name recognition helps the price on East Avenue a bit. The morning line is 8-5; fair odds are 6-5; but I would not be surprised for him to be odds-on.

Still, I do see East Avenue as a very reliable single. Owner Godolphin has started seven horses previously at Mountaineer, winning six of them. The only loss came in the 2023 West Virginia Derby with longshot Groveland. Throw in his tactical pace advantage, and it is just hard to see him losing this one without some other horse running a lifetime best.

From that perspective Brotha Keny is a little interesting off a third-place finish in the Indiana Derby. That was a big step forward and another one typically is not a safe play, but he will be the fourth choice and is a decent gamble to crash the exotics underneath East Avenue.