West Virginia Derby 2018: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

Saturday’s Grade 3, $500,000 West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer gives late developing 3-year-olds a chance to move forward in a big way.

Leading contenders is Bob Baffert-trained Once On Whiskey, who put it all together last out to win the Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby. Getting a rematch in the 1 1/8-mile race is Draft Pick, who Once On Whiskey ran down at Los Alamitos to win by a head.

Baffert is no stranger to Mountaineer, winning the race three times before with his West Coast shippers. Steve Asmussen is another successful trainer in the West Virginia Derby and has collected five wins in the race. This year he tries to earn another with Lionite, who is trying to break through for a graded score.

Post time is 5:35 p.m. ET. Here’s a look at the field with projected odds from Horse Racing Nation:

1. Lionite, 12-1 (Quality Road – Steve Asmussen/David Cabrera – 8:2-2-2 – $178,055): The West Virginia Derby gives Lionite a chance to prove he can take the next step up. He broke his maiden in April and took the Prairie Mile two starts later. In tougher company at 2, Lionite finished fourth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and most recently ran third in the Iowa Derby behind High North and Mr Freeze. Asmussen horses boast a good record here.

2. Draft Pick, 5-2 (Candy Ride – Peter Eurton/Joe Talamo – 8:2-1-2 – $142,080): Draft Pick could have been the Lost Alamitos Derby victor. He finally broke his maiden before winning the Grade 3 Affirmed and put away favored Ax Man in the Los Alamitos Derby. He was drawing away and looked like he would pick up his second stakes score, but Once On Whiskey came grinding down the outside to nab him at the wire. He put in a speedy work July 27, going four furlongs in :47.70, the second fastest of 76 at the distance. Opportunity to reverse the results.

3. Caloric, 25-1 (Stay Thirsty – Odin Londono Jr./Ricardo Mejias – 7:2-0-0 – $33,250): Caloric is no stranger to stakes races, but his past performances in them make the West Virginia Derby look like a tough feat to pull off. With two wins in the claiming ranks, Caloric jumped up in class in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and finished seventh after never factoring in the race. He did better in the Tom Ridge at Presque Isle Downs rallying to fourth, then faded to seventh next out in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. He most recently returned to Presque Isle Downs to finish fourth. A longshot in this race.

4. King Cause, 20-1 (Creative Cause – Doug O’Neill/Julien Leparoux – 6:1-0-1 – $52,225): King Cause is making his first start outside of Southern California. He has also been tested in 3-year-old stakes company but finished second-to-last in short fields in the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera, the Affirmed and the Los Alamitos Derby. Needs a big improvement to make an impact.

5. Once On Whiskey, 2-1 (Bodemeister – Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat – 4:2-1-1 – $140,300): Even with only four starts under his belt, the Los Alamitos Derby win has Once On Whiskey looking like a favorite. It was his first race beyond sprint distances and, at the same distance as the West Virginia Derby, it gives him good experience. A trip to Churchill Downs in May also gave him a taste for traveling outside California. He turned in a nice work July 28, going five furlongs in 1:00.20. A promising late runner.

6. Rugbyman, 8-1 (Tapit – Graham Motion/Jorge Vargas Jr. – 4:1-1-1 – $100,400): Rugbyman got off to an exciting start this year when he broke his maiden second out by 14 lengths at Belmont Park. The Tapit colt then stepped up in the Easy Goer and was second by a neck to the more experienced Prince Lucky. He last ran fourth in the Grade 3 Dwyer. He had his first work back since the Dwyer July 29, breezing an easy five furlongs in 1:03.60 at Motion’s Fair Hill base. Could be sitting on a big effort.

7. Pamir, 30-1 (Blame – Pavel Vashchenko/Luis Quinones – 3:2-0-0 – $17,974): The local runner takes a big step up after breaking his maiden and winning an allowance via disqualification, both wins at Mountaineer. He’s facing a tough order in the West Virginia Derby, and he’ll be against horses with better experience and stakes wins. A tough jump up in company.

8. Mr Freeze, 10-1 (To Honor and Serve – Dale Romans/Robby Albarado – 3:2-1-0 – $129,900): One of the least experienced in the field, the West Virginia Derby gives Mr Freeze a challenge after getting his first stakes taste in the Iowa Derby. He made his race debut a winning one this spring at Keeneland and followed that with a win at Churchill Downs, winning from both off the pace and from the back of the field. Chance to prove he belongs here.

9. High North, 9-2 (Midnight Lute – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 9:3-1-0 – $335,850): High North enters the West Virginia Derby with good experience on his resume and a confidence-boosting recent Iowa Derby win. He’s yet to hit the board in graded stakes company, but stands a chance to break through should he move forward off his last effort. He also put in a nice breeze at Churchill Downs July 28, working five furlongs in a minute flat. Could be the best chance for an upset. 

Summary: Once On Whiskey and Draft Pick are the two to beat after the Los Alamitos Derby, but Draft Pick may have the advantage this time around. With no obvious pace in the West Virginia Derby, Draft Pick’s usual position near the pace may help him hold off a late run from Once On Whiskey. Rugbyman, High North and Mr Freeze also look to be sitting on go, each nice alternative win picks.