Weekend Takeaways: Audible’s loss also a blow to Justify

Eclipse Awards voters received their ballots Thursday with a Jan. 2 deadline looming. Two days later, Audible gave them — myself included — more to think about when was defeated in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes (G3), designed as his final prep for the Pegasus World Cup.

Audible is just the latest runner from Justify’s 3-year-old Kentucky Derby class who proved unable to defeat older rivals. Only one, Promises Fulfilled, has managed to do so — and that victory came sprinting, not against the type of competition where much could be gleaned when it comes to Justify’s talent relative to the other main Horse of the Year contender, Accelerate.

Pitting sophomores against fully developed elders is an expected mismatch. But without seeing Justify take them on himself, voters are forced to wonder what if when considering how the Triple Crown winner might have fared.

American Pharoah answered the question when he went on to win the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Back then, there was no need to analyze the rest of crop. Justify will be judged differently, making the decision between him, Accelerate and for some, Monomoy Girl, who wasn’t beaten across the wire in 2018, that much more difficult.

My mind isn’t made up, and I’m guessing I’ll use most of the time allotted to decide. But it’s likely Audible’s defeat provided the final data point to consider. It certainly didn’t flatter Justify.

That said, there’s no incorrect opinion when it comes to this Big 3 because Horse of the Year criteria is undefined. Is it a popularity contest? A matter of which horse would win head to head? A resume comparison? Depends who you ask, and that’s why input comes from the NTRA, National Turf Writers and Broadcasters members along with the Daily Racing Form, providing an array of perspectives.

Accelerate was truly a Horse of the Year, with a campaign that stretched from February to November. But Justify may be the Horse of the Year given the historic nature not just of what he accomplished, but in the fashion he did.

So for a few more weeks, let the debate continue.

Now, more about Audible…

Off at 1-9, he looked like a lock to win the Harlan’s Holiday, but from the start never truly appeared comfortable. Sure, he doesn’t often break well, but jockey Javier Castellano was obviously searching around for the right spot with the pace slow and the track sealed, with inconsistent amounts of moisture affecting footing.

The question connections will have to think about moving forward is, did Audible actually run well over a wet track in the Kentucky Derby? Third, and a nose away from the place on the first Saturday in May, the colt looked nothing like in his return race when winning Churchill Downs’ Cherokee Run Stakes going seven furlongs in Breeders’ Cup weekend.

If Audible does head to the Pegasus, it would seem wise not to dismiss him on a fast track based on this weekend’s effort alone. Preps are just that — steppingstones — and he should be further tuned up in a third race off the bench.

Pegasus card picks up major players

The first big race weekend of 2019 figures to have gained some big runners (and a likely stakes favorite) coming out of Saturday.

• Glorious Empire going wire to wire in the Fort Lauderdale (G2) proved he both took well to Gulfstream Park’s new turf and doesn’t mind the softer going. He was among a quintet of Grade 1 winners in that field and was never challenged. Now, it’s on to the $7 million Pegasus World Cup Turf, where he should be among the top choices.

• Spotted well, World of Trouble essentially put in a paid workout Saturday when he won Tampa Bay Downs’ FTBOA Marion County Sire Stakes by 13 3/4 lengths, the same margin at which he took the track’s Pascot Stakes to emerge as a 3-year-old to watch earlier this year. He should go favored on Pegasus day in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint.

• Dream Pauline has raced just four times, but is a winner in three of those starts. Her first stakes score came in Saturday’s Sugar Swirl (G3) at Gulfstream, where she figures to return in the Hurricane Bertie. Minor issues, including a sickness before Saratoga’s Prioress, prevented the Stonestreet Stables filly from emerging earlier. But she can open an aspiring 4-year-old campaign next out.