Wednesday wagers: Picks for 5 races at Horseshoe Indy

The Horseshoe Indianapolis meet rolls on Wednesday with a 10-race program, eight of which are for Thoroughbreds. I analyze five of these events below and look for betting value.

Best bet: Talktomejustice (race 1)

Best value bet: Bad Boy Geist (race 2)

Race 1

No. 5 Talktomejustice, 3-1, morning-line favorite, was a solid second vs. tougher going a route of ground at Hawthorne two-back – a repeat of that could put her in the winner’s circle here. Note that jockey Rodney Prescott, 11 percent, had multiple options in this race. No. 9 Blow Sum Smoke, 4-1, is a mostly unknown quantity going long but has demonstrated late kick in recent sprint tries. The speed figures measure up. No. 8 Pretty Assets, 6-1, merits consideration on the class drop while getting back to fast dirt.

How I’d bet it, based on a $100 budget: $10 exacta 5/8,9

Race 2

No. 6 Bad Boy Geist, 3-1, dazzled in his most recent sprint try, romping by 11 lengths. There’s no shame in his not handling state-bred stakes runners going long, and now he drops to a level where he belongs. Note that he beat favored Whosforjustice in their lone prior meeting on May 3. No. 5 Homerunhappy, 9-2, broke his maiden in a well-rated heat in just his second lifetime start, consider. No. 4 Whosforjustice, 9-5, morning-line favorite, took five starts to graduate the maiden ranks, then ran second after having the lead late in his first try vs. winners.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 6/4,5

Race 3

No. 5 Air Cav, 3-1, morning-line favorite, flashes solid five-furlong works going into his debut for Brad Cox, 32 percent. Calumet paid $125k for this son of Mitole at auction. No. 6 Cash Only, 8-1, is by Street Sense out of stakes-winning mare You Bought Her and cost $200k. He is also working forwardly for his unveiling, and trainer William Walden has picked his spots well at Horseshoe Indy this year, going 3-for-7. No. 1 Papa’s Ransom, 6-1, drilled a bullet from the gate for William Morey, 31 percent, and was a $90k purchase.

How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 5/1,6, $4 win 6

Race 5

No. 4 Cierra Empire, 9-5, morning-line favorite, has yet to miss the exacta in two career turf starts and gets Fernando De La Cruz, 17 percent, aboard – tepid nod. No. 2 Tizzy Justice (9-2) has a win and two seconds over the lawn but has never faced winners on the surface, consider. No. 7 Sheza Nut, 4-1, is a threat to take them all the way under Samuel Bermudez, 15 percent.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2/4/7, $4 exacta 4/2,7

Race 7

No. 10 Princess Mitole, 9-2, showed good speed on turf before tiring at Ellis when last seen. She drops in class, scales back a sixteenth and lures Emmanuel Esquivel, 17 percent. No. 1 Runtolive, 5-2, morning-line favorite,  comes into her debut with three bullet works under her belt, but must contend with the rail draw. No. 8 Gigi’s World, 10-1, finished with interest vs. tougher on debut – live long shot.

How I’d bet it: $7 exacta 10/1,8, $4 exacta 1/10, $2 exacta 1/8

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.