Wednesday wagers: Summer Splash shines at Churchill
The fall meet at Churchill Downs rolls on with a 10-race Wednesday program, and all events are scheduled for the dirt. Here are my five favorite heats on the card.
Best bet: Summer Splash (race 3)
Best value bet: Flyin Bessie (race 8)
Race 3
No. 7 Summer Splash (3-1) demolished a similar field at Remington on Sept. 17 before finding allowance foes too tough when last seen. Trainer Bret Calhoun excels with horses turning back from routes to sprints, winning at a 25 percent clip. No. 4 Emerald Express (5-2, morning-line favorite) beat $30,000 claimers over this course back in September when under the care of Mike Maker but has lost two straight since being claimed by Juan Cano. He tries a new low Wednesday, but Cano has lost with each of his last 23 runners at Churchill. No. 6 Ain’t Wasting Time (4-1) earned strong speed figures at Gulfstream over the summer, winning two of his last three races – consider.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $8 exacta 7/4,6, $8 daily double 7/1
Race 4
No. 1 Enchanted Nile (3-1, morning-line favorite) earned a strong speed figure when last seen, securing her second win in two tries under the twin spires. She steps up in class but looks tough to beat based on her career record at the one-mile distance (8: 4-1-1). No. 7 Good Penny (7-2) defeated a pair of Wednesday’s foes at Belterra on July 7 but hasn’t raced since. She might need one off the bench. No. 2 Tiltingatwindmills (8-1) merits respect despite moving up from the $20,000 claiming ranks based on back class.
How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 1/2,7
Race 5
No. 1 Button Boy (3-1) finds a soft spot to return in after splitting a salty allowance field at Keeneland last time out. His lone other try on dirt was a win over $75,000 maiden claimers. No. 3 Slim Man (5-2, morning-line favorite) is a logical alternative for the ever-dangerous Brad Cox stepping up off a well-rated maiden claiming score. No. 2 American Icon (6-1) was burned up in a pace duel here just last week but managed to save third. He wheels back quickly off a negative trainer change but might appreciate stretching out to a mile with a chance to ration his early speed.
How I’d bet it: $7 exacta box 1/3, $3 exacta 1,3/2
Race 7
No. 1 Cees Get Degrees (3-1) has won each of his last two starts on fast dirt by open lengths and takes only a slight hike in class here. The speed figures are strong enough, and trainer Jonathan Wong wins at a 26 percent clip with horses entering off a victory. No. 4 Morning Cup (6-1) improved dramatically in his second lifetime start at Keeneland – another small step forward under Tyler Gaffalione makes this one a win threat. No. 3 Cold as Hell (7-2) is tough to trust on top at 2-for-21 lifetime but frequently picks up checks at this level.
How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 1/3,4, $4 win 4
Race 8
No. 8 Flyin Bessie (7-2) ran second in a 12-horse field at Colonial on debut, closing well and earning a decent speed figure. Gaffalione climbs aboard for Steve Asmussen (25 percent together last 60 days), who has this daughter of Practical Joke drilling sharply ahead of this one. No. 9 Dazzling Blue (5-2, morning-line favorite) cost $500,000 at auction and has some flashy morning works under her belt for Cox – watch the board for a clue as to her readiness at first asking. No. 2 Moment to Shine (9-2) is working strongly at Hawthorne ahead of her unveiling for the lethal Larry Rivelli barn (29 percent with maiden special weight debut runners) and sold for $290,000 last March.
How I’d bet it: $10 win 8, $5 exacta 8/2,9
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.